One of our goals at SportsLine is to help you win at Daily Fantasy Sports.
With that in mind, we've rolled out a new tool we're super excited about: the SportsLine Pro DFS Projections and Optimizer. I know what you're thinking: "More projections? Another optimizer?" It's true, most publically available DFS projections all look the same. And frankly, most of them are bad.
But not ours. We fuel our projections using predictive data and thousands of simulations of each game. The result is a collection of metrics you won't find anywhere else. This guide will teach you how to navigate the SportsLine tools and use them to dominate in MLB DFS.
THE BASICS
When you pop open the MLB Projections, this is what you'll see. By default the player list is sorted with the highest projected players at the top, pitchers and batters mixed together. These projections alone are enough to get you started building rosters, but you can also sort the list by any of the metrics you see here.
(Check out this link for full definitions of every metric).
Sorting by other metrics allows you to better research players based on the type of player you're looking for, and the specific contests you're entering. Need value plays? Sort by our unique "Safety" metric to see which players are most likely to pay off their salary.
Trying to win a tournament? Sort players by their "Great" rating to see who has the best chance to score massive fantasy points. You'll find a more detailed explanation of how to use these metrics specifically to suit your needs later in this guide.
You can further refine the player list by selecting the individual position or single game you'd like to display. Simply click the drop-down menus and select accordingly to refine the list. Selecting individual positions is useful if you'd rather separate pitchers and batters, or are just making a decision on which shortstop to plug in. Looking at batters separately helps you identify which pitchers are likely to get roughed up in a given day. Like poorDaniel Norris in the example below:
You could then select the DET @ BAL game to take a look at how the entire Orioles lineup is expected to fare. Selecting a single game like this is helpful when you're considering stacking several batters from one team and want to see who the best value is, or who has the most upside. This is a popular option whenever teams visit the Rockies at Coors Field, because those games are usually packed with offense. You can see what I mean in the example below, where the Cardinals' top bats are projected to score as many or more Fantasy points as the Rockies' pitcher!
As lineups are released throughout the day, you'll see a green "S" pop up next to players who are confirmed as starters. Our projections will dynamically change based on which players are in the lineup, so be sure to check back once lineups are out!
Beyond the various DFS metrics, we also provide the raw projected stats for each player. Simply click the button labeled "Projected Stats" to take a look. This will give you an idea of how each player is faring across our thousands of simulations, and give you an idea of where each player is scoring their Fantasy points.
If you're playing on a site that emphasizes a particular stat category, you can easily check which players are producing the most of that stat by sorting per category. It's also a great way to find sneaky home run or stolen base potential.
Finally, if you're short on time, or just want to see what our simulations suggest are the best of the best, take a look at the day's Optimal Lineup by clicking the OPTIMAL button located above the player list. Just like our player projections, the optimal lineup will change throughout the day in reaction to lineup announcements, Vegas line movement, and other news.
(Click here if you want to learn more about the exhaustive process our Optimizer goes through).
Now that you've learned the basics of navigating through our Projections and Optimizer, it's time to get to the fun stuff. In the following sections, I'll show you how to use the SportsLine tools to identify the best values each day, and create winning DFS rosters in any contest type you choose.
IDENTIFYING VALUE
As you can see from the screen caps above, the top projected players usually tend to be the most expensive (shocking, I know). Rostering an expensive ace pitcher or a few of these top bats really chews up your salary in a hurry -- it also forces you to roster cheaper, less productive players in order to stay under the salary cap.
But not all cheap players are created equal. In fact, it's often the cheap players that determine who wins and who loses in DFS. A crucial part of DFS is being able to identify players who provide "value" each day -- via producing more Fantasy points than we would expect from an average player with the same salary. The SportsLine Model Projection does just that.
Instead of simply displaying the "value" of a player, SportsLine presents three unique metrics for identifying players who are expected to produce more than their salaries would suggest:
• DOLLARS PER FANTASY POINT: $/FP
• POSITIONAL VALUE: PVAL
• SAFETY: SFTY
Dollars Per Fantasy Point ($/FP) is a simple measure of value that most DFS veterans are probably familiar with. It's exactly what it sounds like: we use a player's salary and projection to compute how many dollars you're paying in salary for every Fantasy point of production. $/FP is a quick and simple way to compare which players are providing more value for their salaries. For example, if we are comparing the value of Player A, who costs $4,000 and is projected for 10 FPTS ($400/FP), with Player B, who costs $2,000 and is projected for 6 FPTS ($333/FP), we would determine Player B has more "value" for his price -- we're paying less for each point of Player B's expected production. In general, sorting the SportsLine model by $/FP will show low-cost batters whose projections are still strong, usually thanks to a matchup with a weak pitcher.
The second measure of value in the SportsLine model is a unique metric we call "Positional Value" or PVAL. PVAL allows us to compare a player's projection and salary to the average projection and salary at his position. We calculate PVAL as follows (via the Sportsline 101 article on projections): "First we divide the player Fantasy Point projection by the position average FPs (the numerator). We then divide the player salary by his position average salary (the denominator). The average player will be 1.00. If Joc Pederson has an FP projection of 12 and the average starting Outfielder FP is 6, his numerator is 12/6 = 2.0. If Pederson has a salary of $4,000 and the average OF salary is $3,000 then his denominator is $4,000 / $3,000 = 1.33. His Position Value is 2.0 / 1.33 = 1.50." PVAL provides a unique and comprehensive way of determining the best values at each position, and often uncovers value plays that few others identify.
The final way that SportsLine quantifies player value is via our "Safety" metric. The Safety metric allows us to leverage our thousands of simulations to not only determine if a player is likely to produce enough Fantasy points to meet value, but also determine how often they meet value. Specifically, Safety % refers to the percentage of simulations where a player produces enough Fantasy points to meet or exceed value based on his salary.
So, if a player needs to score 10 fantasy points to meet value, and he scores 10 or more points in 75% of our simulations, then that player's Safety % is 75%. Players with high Safety % can be considered more reliable as value plays than their peers with low Safety %. In this way, the Safety metric allows you to differentiate between value plays in a way that other measures of value do not.
Pro Tip: sorting the model by Safety % is a great way to find consistent value plays that are perfect for your cash games (see below).
CASH GAMES VS TOURNAMENTS: A SONG OF FLOORS AND CEILINGS
As you've seen so far, the SportsLine model contains a bunch of data you won't find anywhere else, data you can use to dominate DFS. But the way you use the model each day will depend on the types of contests you're playing.
For the purpose of this guide we'll break down DFS contests into two primary groups: cash games (which include double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads), and tournaments. Cash games refer to contests where half the field wins. For example, in a 100-person double-up, the top-50 entries will win double their entry fee. This payout structure differs greatly from tournaments, where a much smaller percent of the field wins money, and the vast majority of the prize pool is awarded to the top few spots. Just as the payout structure differs between cash games and tournaments, so too does roster construction. That's where our model comes in.
The SportsLine model provides a one-stop shop to help you identify the best plays regardless of game type.
USING THE SPORTSLINE MODEL IN CASH GAMES (I.E. 50/50, DOUBLE-UP, H2H)
In DFS cash games, we want to focus on getting consistent production from our players. Since we only need to beat half the field, we want to load up on players who have solid "floors" -- which means players that will consistently give us a solid baseline of production.
The Sportsline model is helpful for identifying cash-game plays because it gives you an idea of how often a player scored a particular amount of points in our simulations. This gives a more robust measure of consistency than most projection models. While there are many ways to use the Sportsline model to identify cash-game plays, two methods stand out:
• USING SAFETY% (SFTY)
• USING SCORING PROFILES (I.E. POOR+/SOLID+/GOOD+/GREAT)
As mentioned above in the section on Identifying Value, the Safety % metric shows us how often a player scores enough Fantasy points to be worth their salary. This is obviously really useful in cash games, where we're trying to roster as many consistent scorers as possible.
Players with high Safety% ratings are more likely to provide the value we're looking for.
Using Safety % on its own is a good way to ensure your rosters consist of players who are likely to provide value relative to their salaries, but it's especially effective when combined with a player's scoring profile. Each player's scoring profile is displayed after their average projection, and is presented in terms of how often the players scores at or beyond separate Fantasy point thresholds.
For example, if we're looking at a player who has a DraftKings "Good+" rating of 25%, that means that in 25% of simulations the player is scoring at least 16 DraftKings points. The way to leverage this information in cash games is to focus on selecting players who have high Poor+, and Solid+ ratings. Players who rate highly in Poor+ and Solid+ are more likely to provide the high floor that we're looking for in cash games.
USING THE SPORTSLINE MODEL IN TOURNAMENTS
In tournaments we aren't looking for consistency -- we're looking for upside. Because tournaments pay out such a small percentage of the field, we don't care about beating some of the field like we do in cash games. We're aiming to win the whole thing.
There are two main ways the Sportsline model can help you make high-ceiling tournament rosters:
• USING GREAT %
• USING THE VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION
We've already covered how looking at a player's scoring profile can help you build cash-game rosters; we can also use this information (albeit in a different way) in tournaments. Instead of focusing on the players who consistently give us a baseline level of production, we will use the Great % metric to identify players that have tournament-winning upside. Often these players are your typical high-power, low-average types -- big boppers that can give you two homers or give you nothing. We can see this low-floor, high-ceiling potential in these players' scoring profiles: they often appear much worse in Poor+ and Solid+ than the top options of the day, yet still rate highly in Great %. Sorting by Great % will thus show you the players in situations ripe for offensive production.
To win a tournament, we obviously need high-scoring players. But we also need to differentiate from the rest of the other entries. If you stack the Blue Jays and 5,000 other lineups do too, it's going to be awfully difficult to separate from the pack. This is where being contrarian and going against the majority comes in. One way to do this using the Sportsline model is to compare our projection with the Vegas Line Expectation (VLE).
When the VLE is high, we can often expect that player to be highly owned; the reverse is also true, as a low VLE usually suggests a team isn't projected well by Vegas, and is then often overlooked by the DFS masses. We can use this information to our advantage by targeting players who have a VLE lower than our projection. This often indicates a team that our model rates highly, but Vegas doesn't' have as much faith in. Using the SportsLine model to identify offensive potential that others might miss is a great way to differentiate yourself from the pack in tournaments.
I hope this guide has given you a solid idea of how you can use the Sportsline model to win in MLB DFS. Whether you're looking for value, or searching for a tournament-winning gem, our unique and powerful metrics will give you the advantage you need to dominate.
The former director of Daily Fantasy Sports at StarStreet, Joshua John is an elite DFS player who specializes in next-level, data-driven analysis. He'll educate and entertain DFS users.
