7:40 pm UTC
CLE @ ARI -117
DFS NBA Strategy: Using Pace as a Deciding Factor
DailyRoto's Galin Dragiev talks about using pace as a deciding factor in DFS NBA lineups.
We talk about pace a lot in the Daily Fantasy NBA and it's because it's such an important metric.
A fast-paced game can see several possessions more than a slow-paced one, and that boosts players' productivity significantly.
Let's look at a game tonight that might go FAST – Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State. The game is projected at a total of 224.5 and has a projected line of 7.5 in favor of Golden State, meaning Vegas expects it to stay relatively close.
A game like this is worth exploiting in GPPs at FantasyDraft, as the pace can add extra upside.
If we look at the projections, they really seem to like a number of these players already, but let's take a look at the price on some of them over on FantasyDraft:
- Kevin Love: $15,000
- Draymond Green: $14,000
- Kyrie Irving: $14,700
All three seem significantly underpriced considering how well they project over at DailyRoto. If we account for the pace increasing the upside on these players, they become even better tournament targets.
There is a secondary benefit here as well. These teams are involved in blowouts quite often, which leads to a slight decrease in minutes for their star players. A game like this that is supposed to be competitive should see an increase in minutes for most star players, and that could lead to increased upside.
Last time these teams met this season, most starters ended up playing over 35 minutes and absolutely crushed value, and another similar outcome won't be a surprise this time around.
If we compare this to a game like the Utah Jazz versus Phoenix, the differences are significant. In the Jazz game, the total is projected to be just 202 by Vegas, and the projections number of possessions really limits the upside there.
To summarize, keep pace in mind as an important factor to consider in DFS NBA. Fast-paced games often see a huge increase in production and are more stackable. Pace is accounted for in the projections, but fast-paced games generally see more volatility and can produce GPP-winning performances more often.
Galin Dragiev
