Deshaun Watson odds fallout: Suspension increased to 11 games, Cleveland Browns' 2022 win total drops to 8.5

The NFL and NFLPA have reached a settlement in the Deshaun Watson case. The Browns quarterback will be suspended 11 games and receive a $5 million fine. Watson will also be evaluated by behavioral experts and enter a treatment program. Originally, Watson was suspended six games with no fine, but the NFL appealed the matter and appeals officer Peter Harvey reportedly was refraining from making his final verdict until the sides reached an impasse in negotiations. The first win totals I've seen have Cleveland dropping from an original of 9.5 to 8.5 with this news, but the situation is fluid and it may end up 8 at some books.

The fine equates to half of Watson's salary from the last season. Watson, then still with the Texans, elected not to play in 2021. Because the suspension is not season-long, Watson can stay with the Browns during the preseason. His suspension will commence as of Aug. 30, and he will be eligible to return Nov. 28. Watson played briefly in the exhibition opener in Jacksonville last week and was 1-for-5 for 7 yards. Cleveland hosts Philadelphia on Sunday.

Rather ironically, Watson's Browns debut in Week 13 will come against his former Texans team in Houston on CBS. Cleveland's remaining schedule after that: Week 14 at Cincinnati, Week 15 vs. Baltimore, Week 16 vs. New Orleans, Week 17 at Washington and Week 18 at Pittsburgh. The Browns' final game without him will be Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay.

Originally, Watson was due back Week 7 at Baltimore. With the suspension extended, he now misses that game, Week 8 vs. Cincinnati, the Week 9 bye, Week 10 at Miami, Week 11 at Buffalo and Week 12 against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. That's an extremely tough slate. 

Veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett is projected to be Cleveland's starting QB to open the season, with the Browns +1 at Carolina in Week 1, but the fact Watson's suspension was extended from six games to 11 might mean the Browns look into trading for the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo. For now, Brissett's backup will either be Josh Dobbs or Josh Rosen.

Currently, Cleveland is +3000 (was +2500) to win the Super Bowl, +1600 (was +1300) to win the AFC title for the first time and +450 (was +300) to capture the AFC North. To make the playoffs, the Browns are +135 with no at -175. Watson is +1800 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, but playing just six games makes him unlikely to win. 

The SportsLine Projection Model now forecasts the Browns at 8.6 wins, a 35.3% chance of making the playoffs, 16.2% to win the AFC North, 2.6% for the AFC title and 1.1% to win Super Bowl 57. 

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