The 2020 DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 100-catch campaign. He's a first-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:
So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)
No. 10.3 ADP
No. 4 WR (non-PPR)
No. 2 WR (PPR)
DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model)
150 targets, 101 receptions, 1,195 receiving yards, 7.8 receiving TDS
167 Fantasy points (non-PPR); 268 (PPR)
DeAndre Hopkins 2020 Fantasy outlook
From a volume perspective, there simply hasn't been a receiver like Hopkins recently. He's the only wideout to finish with a target market share of at least 30 percent in each of the past three seasons. He also is the only one with an air yards market share of at least 40 percent in each season.
Expecting him to repeat such an unprecedented level of volume in a new offensive system takes quite the leap of faith.
The Cardinals didn't have a receiver even top 110 targets last season, as Kyler Murray spread the ball around evenly. Christian Kirk led the team with a 23 percent target market share, and four receivers finished with a target share of at least 10 percent.
Not only is Hopkins likely to see fewer targets in Arizona, but the targets he sees will likely be less accurate than what he has grown accustomed to while playing with Watson. Watson ranked ahead of Murray in nearly every advanced passing metric in 2019, and his pass-catchers saw a catchable target 75.6 percent of the time. Murray's catchable target rate came in at a respectable 74.6 percent in his rookie season, but that was boosted a bit by the amount of throws that went to the RB position. As proof, Hopkins' catchable target rate of 75.3 percent was markedly higher than that of Larry Fitzgerald (72.1 percent), Christian Kirk (71.7 percent), or KeeSean Johnson (60 percent).
As if that wasn't enough bad news, Hopkins will have fewer opportunities to take advantage of lesser defenders from the slot in 2020.
The upside is there for Hopkins to still end up finishing 2020 as a top-three Fantasy wideout, but there is enough risk here to easily pass on him for Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Julio Jones if picking among the top tier of Fantasy receivers. I actually have him ranked significantly below consensus, as he comes in as my WR9 with the almost guaranteed drop in volume.
