Cubs vs. Tigers Wednesday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Tarik Skubal yet to allow earned run at home, set at 2.5 allowed for matinee

The Detroit Tigers have some really interesting young hitting led by Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson. If they can find an ace in the rotation, the Tigers could contend in the weak AL Central as early as 2024. Maybe that ace is already there in lefty Tarik Skubal, who has not allowed an earned run at Comerica Park this year and is set at over/under 2.5 earned allowed for Wednesday's matinee series finale vs. the Cubs.

Detroit's ace by now was supposed to be Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The right-hander showed major promise in 2021 but has made only two starts since then -- and none this year -- due to Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Matt Manning, the No. 9 overall pick in the 2016 draft, has had his moments in the majors but has also fought injuries and inconsistency.

It sure looks as if Skubal will be the anchor going forward. The 26-year-old was a ninth-round pick in the 2018 draft and had his 2022 season cut short due to flexor tendon surgery. Skubal didn't debut this year until July 4 and is 3-2 with a 3.76 ERA in eight starts overall. At home, he's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 18.1 innings with 26 strikeouts, three walks and only 10 hits allowed. The lone run Skubal has allowed at Comerica Park was unearned thanks to a Greene error in the second inning on Aug. 5 vs. Tampa Bay.

"He has ace stuff," said Carpenter after Skubal's most recent outing, his first road win of the year. "He can go six or seven innings, no runs, any time he goes out."

For a point of comparison among qualified pitchers, of which Skubal isn't close yet, Arizona's Zac Gallen has the best home ERA among starters at 1.79 in 13 outings and he's a top NL Cy Young candidate. While the splits are extreme this year (road ERA of 7.20), Skubal always has been better at home with an 11-12 record and 3.10 ERA in 177 innings in Detroit, compared to 8-14 with a 5.22 ERA in 160.1 road innings.

His lone career start vs. the Cubs was at Comerica Park on May 14 of the 2021 season and he took the loss, allowing four runs over six. Skubal Under 2.5 earned runs allowed today is the -170 favorite. Skubal is also set at O/U 6.5 strikeouts, 5.5 hits and +180 to personally win.

It's a getaway game for Chicago, which starts Jameson Taillon (7-8, 5.56 ERA). He has been horrific in nine day starts this year at 1-6 with an 8.01 ERA. Taillon is 1-1 with an 8.31 ERA (8 ER/8.2 IP) in two career starts against Detroit. He is also set at O/U 2.5 earned runs, but the Over is a -135 favorite. 

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