Computer updates Jaguars' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the first wave of NFL free agency.
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Considering what we've seen on the field the last two seasons, it's hard to believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars were in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, where they gave the New England Patriots a serious run for their money. However, poor quarterback decisions in the two seasons since have put the Jaguars in a bind and they've now managed just 11 wins in that span.
Sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew got unexpectedly thrust into the starting lineup early in the 2019 season after Nick Foles broke his collarbone and actually showed some potential in his rookie season. He completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,271 yards and 21 touchdowns with just six interceptions while also running for 344 yards. Now, it appears as if the Jaguars are committing to him as their starter.
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Jacksonville entered the 2020 NFL offseason at an inflection point and decided to start thinking long-term as they sold off available assets. Foles was traded to the Chicago Bears and defensive lineman Calais Campbell was given an opportunity to compete for a championship when he was traded away to the Baltimore Ravens. They also traded away cornerback A.J. Bouye to the Denver Broncos and losing three established veterans that they'd paid a lot of money to was an admission that the franchise was tearing it down.
However, the Jaguars haven't simply hoarded cap space with designs on rolling it over for another day. They signed inside linebacker Joe Schobert to a five-year, $53.75 million deal and also signed defensive end Rodney Gunter and tight end Tyler Eifert to contracts worth $33.5 million combined. Now that Jaguars have nearly $20.3 million in remaining cap space, but with two first-round picks and a total of 12 picks overall at next month's 2020 NFL Draft, they'll need about $13.1 million of that space to sign their rookies.
That makes the 2020 NFL Draft the most important the franchise has had in years. With so many assets, the Jaguars have the potential to turn things around quickly if they're right about Minshew. However, even if they have a great draft, 2020 could be tough sledding considering how young the roster will be.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 time and the Jaguars win an average of 4.6 games in those simulations and make the postseason 2.6 percent of the time. That is a massive drop from the 6.0 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Jaguars at 200-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which is tied for worst odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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