Computer updates Browns' projected 2020 win total

After winning five of their final seven games in 2018 and then making aggressive moves in the 2019 NFL offseason, the Cleveland Browns were trendy picks to make their first postseason appearance since 2002. However, Baker Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens were unable to recreate the offensive magic they had found late in the previous season and the Browns sputtered to a 6-10 season.

Kitchens was fired after just one season for the failures and now former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski will look to put Mayfield back on the right track. 

The Browns still have quite a bit of talent after years of picking at the top of the draft and that aggressive offseason a year ago, but can a new coaching staff and new front office get a playoff push out of a team they didn't put together?

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The Browns entered the 2020 NFL offseason with a fairly sizable amount of cap space and made some pretty big moves, signing right tackle Jack Conklin to a three-year, $42 million contract and then spending $42 million over four years on tight end Austin Hooper. They also signed quarterback Case Keenum as an insurance policy against further Mayfield struggles and added veteran leadership on the other side of the ball by signing former Falcons defensive end Adrian Clayborn.

However, the Browns also let several young defenders walk in free agency as well, as the new front office reprioritized the way it allocated cap space. Joe Schobert, Christian Kirksey, Eric Murray and Justin Burris were all allowed to walk in free agency and now the Browns will have some serious defensive holes to address in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft.

Cleveland has a top-10 pick, an extra third-round pick and nearly $43.6 million in remaining cap space to add to its roster. And with several big-name defensive free agents like Jadeveon Clowney, Everson Griffen, Logan Ryan and Mike Daniels still available and a lot of impressive offensive talent on the board in the draft, the Browns could still make waves. But will it be enough to make up an eight-game gap in the AFC North or to get into playoff contention?

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and the Browns win an average of 7.4 games in those simulations and make the postseason 27.6 percent of the time while winning the AFC North 4.1 percent of the time. 

That is a slight jump from the 7.1 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Browns at 40-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which is tied for 13th-worst odds in the NFL.