College Football CFP Championship Picks and Odds: Does Alabama still carry value?
Looking at the current futures market at the Westgate LV SuperBook, there is one bet in particular that still offers value -- and it isn't on a team you would expect.
This isn't a long shot that offers ridiculous odds if a bunch of things line up just right. It's a bet on Alabama to win the national championship at +140, or 7/5.
| Team | Open | Current |
| Alabama | 6/1 | 7/5 |
| Ohio State | 10/1 | 3/1 |
| Michigan | 15/1 | 6/1 |
| Washington | 60/1 | 6/1 |
| Clemson | 15/1 | 7/1 |
| Louisville | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| LSU | 100/1 | 20/1 |
| WIsconsin | 7/1 | 30/1 |
I've written in my Top 10 column the last few weeks that I think this Alabama team might be the best I have ever seen. They are literally the highest power-rated team I have ever calculated since I started doing this a decade ago.
Their defense is as strong as ever, but their offense ranks 11th nationally this season. To put that into perspective, their championship team from a year ago ranked 46th. Those numbers aren't adjusted for strength of schedule either.
The Crimson tide have played the 11th-toughest schedule and nobody ranked ahead of them in offensive efficiency has had a tougher one. The way I currently have hypothetical matchups lined for the College Football Playoff, Alabama would be at least a 6-point favorite over every potential opponent.
That means that the absolute best projected number we could get once the playoff starts is essentially PK -125 that the Tide ship it.
Getting a +140 in this spot obviously offers value. Yes, Alabama has to actually get to the playoff. But unless they lose two regular-season games, the defending champs will find a way in.
Again, I can't recall seeing a better football team in recent years. Getting a price of +140 with the added edge in the numbers is a no-brainer.
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