A rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game takes place this week when the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills collide in the Sunday Night Football game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs beat the Bills, 38-24, in that game last year to advance to the Super Bowl but have started this season 2-2. Meanwhile, the Bills (3-1) have bounced back from a season-opening loss to Pittsburgh to win three straight games. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 56.5. 

Before you make any Bills vs. Chiefs picks or any other NFL predictions, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst and Kansas City expert Larry Hartstein has to say. 

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. This season he has been on fire. Through four weeks Hartstein is 18-5-1 with his NFL picks, for a winning percentage of 78.3 and a profit of $1,225. With his last 21 picks, he is an amazing 18-3.

He also has had a keen eye for the tendencies of the Chiefs, posting a 16-5 record on his last 21 spread picks involving Kansas City. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.

The Chiefs have dominated Buffalo since Andy Reid took over as coach in Kansas City in 2013. In six games against the Bills since then, the Chiefs are 5-1, including last season's victory in the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City's average margin of victory in those games has been 9.6 points per game.

However Buffalo has one of the best defenses -- if not the best defense -- in the NFL. Led by star linebacker Matt Milano, the Bills lead the league in scoring defense (11.0 points per game), total defense (216.8 yards per game) and passing defense (148.8 yards per game). Last week they limited the Texans to just 109 total yards in their second shutout in three games.

Now, Hartstein has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Chiefs vs. Bills. We can tell you he's leaning Under the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a MUST-BACK! You ABSOLUTELY need to see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

Who wins Chiefs vs. Bills? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? ... Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the expert who's an outstanding 16-5 with his last 21 Chiefs picks!