CFB: Take Advantage of Bad Opening Lines

Every Sunday, college football opening lines hit the market around 3 p.m. local time here in Vegas (6 p.m. ET) and a bit later at major offshore books like BookMaker.eu and Pinnacle.

Betting games early can be critical. That's how you get the best numbers and ultimately profit more.

With that in mind, I'll give you what the true spreads should be, plus some price points to buy on one side or the other when these games open.

VIRGINIA TECH AT PITTSBURGH (Thurs.)

Hokies -3.5

Pittsburgh has an advantage coming off its bye, but these Hokies responded about as well as anyone could have asked after suffering a loss at Syracuse in Week 7. A 21-point win against Miami is no easy task. Which Virginia Tech squad will show up Thursday? Unless we get a number that’s far from mine I won’t be getting involved.

CALIFORNIA AT USC

Trojans -12.5

The Trojans have been playing fantastic football the last month. I'm hoping to get a short opener under double digits and will back the Trojans if so.

WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA STATE

West Virginia -2.5

It's unlikely we get a number too extreme either way, but I wanted to include my number here since WVU being undefeated to this point may draw some eyes to this game. I don't want to step in front of Dana Holgorsen and this Mountaineers squad, but I also won't be paying a premium to back them now.

MICHIGAN AT MICHIGAN STATE

Wolverines -17

Punt block at buzzer for a touchdown revenge for the Wolverines here. It's hard to fathom how Sparty went from a College Football Playoff team in 2015 to one that won't even make a bowl. This will probably get ugly, and Michigan deserves to be a massive favorite here. Would require an inexplicable number for me to ever consider looking at Michigan State.

PENN STATE AT PURDUE

Nittany Lions -9

Intriguing Week 9 game now that Penn State is coming off of its own blocked kick returned for a game-winning touchdown against the No. 2-ranked Buckeyes. I imagine this will be talked up as a massive letdown spot for PSU, but Purdue is 125th in the country in turnover margin (-1.8 per game). The firing of head coach Darrell Hazell may help, but I don't want to make assumptions. Besides, a win like Ohio State can actually jumpstart a program. It wouldn't surprise me if PSU went on a nice run to end the season.

GEORGIA VS. FLORIDA

Gators -7.5

Both teams will be coming off their bye. Georgia lost at home to Vanderbilt in its last game, but I don't expect there to be a huge reaction to it in the market (or at least to the point that we can consider backing the Bulldogs here). If by some miracle we see double digits at some point Sunday, it's definitely worth grabbing.

MIAMI AT NOTRE DAME

Pick-'em

The Irish got a bye week to regroup after a disastrous 2-5 start. I don't expect a significant difference in the opener from my line, but similarly to that Stanford game two weeks back in South Bend, if either team got to +3.5 or better I'd probably jump in on that side.

WASHINGTON AT UTAH

Huskies -11.5

Utah has been extremely fortunate in games against BYU, USC and UCLA and I don't consider them a legitimate 7-1 team at all. In fact, the Utes will be a fringe Top-15 team in the polls, but they are only my 37th-rated team. I'm hoping for a number short of double digits and will likely be backing the Huskies if so.

NORTHWESTERN AT OHIO STATE

Buckeyes -23.5

Urban Meyer off of a loss is about as scary as it gets. I imagine a lot of people will want to back the Buckeyes this week, so I wanted to include my number for a reference point. Northwestern has been really impressive week after week and I don't foresee myself backing Ohio State unless this opens 17 or less. I'm dreaming.

BOISE STATE AT WYOMING

Broncos -13.5

Similarly to San Diego State in the MWC, this is my guess at the game the Broncos have the best shot of losing the rest of the way. The Cowboys have one of the most valuable home field advantages in the nation (worth 5 points), but I've noticed it's still one of the most overlooked in the market from week to week. I'll definitely be taking a hard look at Wyoming if we can get an inflated number Sunday.

AUBURN AT OLE MISS

Rebels -3

Auburn set rushing records in its 56-3 win over Arkansas. I don't expect the Tigers to do the same to Ole Miss, but the point is they can compete with just about anybody. I rate Auburn and Ole Miss similarly, so home field gives Ole Miss the slight edge. After their fourth loss and dropping to sixth in the SEC West, it feels like Ole Miss may just coast the rest of the way. I'll be taking a look at some matchup metrics but it's likely Tigers or pass for me.

CLEMSON AT FLORIDA STATE

Tigers -3

This is basically Clemson's first College Football Playoff game. A win Saturday and the schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way. Both the Tigers and Seminoles are coming off byes. I'd be surprised if this game didn't hang around 3 most of the week. It feels like the perfect number. Look for a Clemson field goal to win it late.