CFB: How to exploit soft opening lines

Every Sunday, college football opening lines hit the market around 3 p.m. local time here in Vegas (6 p.m. ET) and a bit later at major offshore books like BookMaker.eu and Pinnacle.

Betting games early can be critical. That's how you get the best numbers and ultimately profit more.

With that in mind, I'll give you what the true spreads should be, plus my price points to buy on one side or the other when these games open.

NORTH CAROLINA AT MIAMI

My pointspread: Miami -6.5

Both teams are coming off of a loss and need this game to stay in the hunt behind Virginia Tech for the ACC Coastal, so there isn't much of an edge situationally either way.

The fact that the Hurricanes travel to face the Hokies the following Thursday is worth mentioning, but they won't overlook the Tar Heels.

With my number sitting right around a touchdown, my buy point on Miami would need be at -3 or less. For the Tar Heels, they'd likely need to be getting double digits for me to fire a bet on their side.

ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE

My pointspread: Alabama -9

What the Volunteers have done to this point is nothing short of impossible. I fortunately didn't bet their last two games against Georgia and Texas A&M, but just putting myself in the shoes of those who did probably cost me a year of my life.

It's easy to say Tennessee isn't very good. In fact, most of Twitter does just that about 2 1/2 quarters nto their games (see Florida, UGA, A&M games). You have to credit them for continuously fighting, but they have definitely benefitted from massive good fortune late in games.

For Alabama it's been business as usual. This difficult four-game stretch could catch up to the Tide, but I don't see that happening this Saturday.

If a number under a touchdown opens Sunday, I will definitely be backing the Crimson Tide. There isn't a number high enough that would get me backing Tennessee. The Vols are now 0-5 against the spread in the first half and 5-0 ATS in the second half. If I ultimately wanted any piece of Tennessee, I'd wait to jump in at halftime to get a potentially better adjusted number.

OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN

My pointspread: Ohio State -10

I bet this one at South Point over the summer when they released their Games of the Year lines. They were generally down on Ohio State then, so I was able to take advantage of a good number with the Buckeyes laying a field goal.

If the Buckeyes open Sunday at -7 or less, I'd have to consider adding to my previous bet.

The Badgers are coming off of a bye and we may see that accounted for in the market, but I generally only value the bye week about one point so it shouldn't make a significant difference either way.

If for some reason we see Wisconsin getting 14 or more, I'd definitely play the Badgers there with the intent of playing back later in the week on Ohio State at -10 or better to set up a worthwhile middle opportunity.

BONUS GAMES

STANFORD AT NOTRE DAME

My pointspread: Pick

Both teams have fallen way short of expectations, making it almost impossible to bet either side. But if I saw +3.5 on either team Sunday, it would probably tempt me enough to grab it.

OLE MISS AT ARKANSAS

My pointspread: Ole Miss -6

The Rebels are coming off of a bye and get the Razorbacks immediately following their battle against Alabama. I have a suspicion this opens lower than the -6 I project it to be, so if we see anyone open Ole Miss -3 or better it would be an absolute steal.

UCLA AT WASHINGTON STATE

My pointspread: Washington State -2.5

The Cougars have destroyed Oregon and Stanford in back-to-back weeks. I bet them in the Oregon game, but I thought the -6.5 on the road at Stanford got out of hand and I played on the Cardinal in Week 6.

It was pretty evident from the get-go that Wazzu was going to contend for the Pac-12 North this year (they get Washington at home in their season finale). I don't imagine oddsmakers making a mistake on the Cougars for a third week in a row, but if they open up underdogs or short favorites I would snatch that up as soon as you can.

UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen was injured Saturday night at Arizona State and there's a chance he won't play. If this is the case, your Wazzu ticket will be sitting pretty come kickoff when the game closes around a touchdown.