Cardinals vs. Saints picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Thursday Night Football

Get yourself mentally prepared for another Thursday night stinker. I already am.

If you expect the absolutely least out of these spectacles, then it becomes very hard to be let down. And if you continue to embrace the investment potential in these short-week games being disjointed, ugly and bereft of much offensive nuance, execution or production, well, then you are cashing in my friend. Will this as drop-dead brutal as, say, Commandos-Bears and Broncos-Colts? Perhaps not. They have set the bar ridiculously low.

But I'm not expecting a crisp, well-played game either. I'm not anticipating fireworks. I don't love some of the numbers here as much as I did on those previous Thursday night slop-fests. The fact that the Saints are rolling up some high point totals gives me a little pause against a Cardinals team that been fugazi all season save for a few Kyler Murray scramble-drill answered prayers.

However, there are some Thursday night trends I find too difficult to ignore as we head into the second third of the season.

• More TNF picks: Model | Expert | Props | DFS

Spread: Saints +2

I say this with no great enthusiasm. Both of these coaches stink. New Orleans has a broken defense and Arizona has a broken offense. Dennis Allen has lost 13 in a row as an underdog and Kliff Kingsbury hasn't won a home game in almost a calendar year. In all honesty, part of the reason I'm taking the points here is because I could see these two pulling a Spider-Man meme and ending this game in a tie. The Cardinals' biggest strength on defense is the ability to get pressure, but I see the Saints using a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill to combat that and keep the heat off Andy Dalton. The Arizona pass defense looks really good – in part because of that pass rush – but, again, Saints will try to bully them in the trenches. The New Orleans defense has to adjust to life without Marshon Lattimore and adhere to two- and three-deep shells. Right? Finally? Let Kyler Murray run for another 100 yards, just protect against the big play downfield. This line moved from 1.5 to 2 points literally as I was writing this column. I'm going to take that as an omen. Give me all the points.

Total: Under 44.5

This is already down from 46, and I would try to grab it now because it's probably headed further south. The Under is hitting at 59% on the season and it's 5-1 on Thursday night (with an average total of 36.7). Arizona has played four straight Unders and the lines have been way off, missing by 21.5 points, 9.5 points, 2 points and 16.2 points. I feel like DeAndre Hopkins' return might be keeping this one a little inflated too, but keep in mind, he averaged just 57 yards per game in 2021, has missed a ton of time, and this offense is totally broken. And trust me, Kingsbury ain't got the answers. Both starting quarterbacks have stunk in prime time, and, yes New Orleans allowing 28 or more in three straight games is a concern, but Arizona's offense in a short week should be the antidote to that. The Saints have rolled up 200 or more on the ground in two straight and will be content to play ball control and grind the clock (especially with them short at wide receiver), and Allen will do the right thing (I hope) and zone it up to force Murray to keep dinking and dunking -- he currently sports an NFL-worst 5.8 yards per passing attempt. Even if the ground game isn't special, I see New Orleans sticking with it, which keeps the clock moving.

First Half Total: Under 22

If you pay any attention to this space, we have been banging the first-half Unders (or first-half spreads) in particular in Cardinals games, because their early scripts stink, Murray usually isn't running around that much and they love to quickly fall behind. The Cardinals' -60 first-half margin is worst in football and neither of these teams get going until after halftime. Arizona averages less than five points per first half (dead last by a wide margin) and the Saints average nine (23rd in the NFL). On a short week with travel and juggling injuries, with even less prep time for normal, do we really see them bucking that trend?

Prop: Bears Field Goal Attempt on Opening Drive (+460)

For all of their offensive warts -- and barely throwing the ball at all or really throwing it downfield certainly counts as a wart -- Chicago has started games well. The Bears have a touchdown and three straight field goals on their opening drives over the last four weeks. As I mentioned, they have been good at home and I don't see their rookie coach getting cute in the red zone or near the goal line if they are in position to kick their way to some points on the first possession. With this much value on the board, against a defense that has struggled like Washington's, in a game in which I don't expect all that much to happen, I like this bet.

Player Props

At the time of this writing, Caeser's has not posted many player props, including for Arizona WRs or RBs, or Murray's rushing totals. No Taysom Hill props are available yet, either. If the number on Hopkins comes in anywhere around 70, I would suggest fading it. I'd be more into a force-fed anytime touchdown for him. Regardless, I am picking with limited options at this point.

Kyler Murray Anytime TD (+245)

Arizona has lost eight in a row at home. Kilff has to pull out all the stops. Murray is coming off a strong rushing performance and has two rushing TDs already this season. Also, we don't think that with his play-calling duties in the balance, Kingsbury won't get cute in primetime and try to get Murray a TD on a Philly Special or something like that? Razzle-dazzle! For this much return, I am going to sprinkle a little somethin-somethin.

Will Lutz Over 1.5 Field Goals (-111)

The Saints went 1-5 in the red zone last week and things have dried up with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry all out. Chis Olave says he's good to go, but it's still Andy Dalton in primetime (6-18 in his career). New Orleans is among the NFL leaders with four red zone field goals over the last two weeks (while dealing with WR issues) and Lutz has plenty of leg for some long attempts as well.

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