Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 1 Lineup Advice from proven expert

Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.

I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these episodes with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!

For example, let's talk about the tight end position. Cole Kmet may have a higher median projection than Luke Musgrave, but your team just lost Travis Kelce! You need access to more upside, and a realistic outcome exists where Musgrave turns in a huge performance. How realistic is it, though? What are some of the potential paths to that outcome? How confident do you feel that one of those paths will appear for Musgrave?

These are the types of discussions that I hope to facilitate in this space. I'll lay out the situations that stood out to me when analyzing the upcoming games and talk through potential outcomes and how they might impact the lineup decisions that we have to make.

I do my best to create space to answer questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. I also plan to create a live stream version of this article where we can talk through lineup decisions together each Wednesday.

My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season! Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions across my leagues for Week 1.

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every Fantasy-relevant player's stats and shared his findings for Week 1 of the 2023 season. 

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery. Gibbs expects the former Bear to be a focal point of the high-powered Detroit offense. Gibbs is also avoiding a pair of popular players from the same team! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 1 And which pair of teammates does Gibbs think you should leave on your bench? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' 2023 Fantasy football rankings, sleepers, breakouts and busts, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

David Montgomery is set to succeed

In 2022, the Detroit Lions had the second-highest average combined score in their games, behind only – you guessed it – the Kansas City Chiefs. Without Chris Jones, this Chiefs defense is in trouble. The Chiefs already struggled a bit to stop the run, specifically against ground-and-pound teams like Detroit. That issue is only going to be exacerbated without Jones.

A whopping 35% of Kansas City's opponent rush attempts in 2022 came up the middle, which was 17% above the league average. On runs up the middle, the Chiefs allowed 4.8 yards per rush – up 11% from the league average. On attempts up the middle without Chris Jones on the field over the past two seasons, that rose to 5.2 yards per carry.

This is music to Dan Campbell's ears, as 35% of Detroit's rush attempts went up the middle in 2022. That was sixth in the NFL. That's how this team likes to attack. It's no secret that they're bringing the fight to you. And they're really good at it.

Detroit averaged 5.1 yards per up-the-middle attempt, which ranked fourth in 2022. I expect that they'll look to establish their advantage on the interior early and pound Montgomery up the middle often to test this Chiefs defense and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands.

My projections are extremely bullish on Montgomery (RB10 in Half-PPR and RB11 in PPR) in Week 1, and it makes a ton of sense. There are so many paths to upside. I have him ranked one spot ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs. I'm comfortably starting him over Rhamondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker, Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce, and Alexander Mattison.

Start Raheem Mostert with confidence

The Chargers were last in defensive rushing EPA and yards per rush allowed. A total of 11 different RBs rushed for 100+ yards against them, including James Robinson and Latavius Murray. This Chargers run defense was bad last year. It should be better, but on paper, you honestly couldn't find a better matchup for Mostert.

The Chargers allowed 6.4 yards per rush on outside zone attempts in 2022. No other team's average was above 6, and only three were above 5. Los Angeles was by far the worst at stopping outside zone, which is the run scheme that Miami uses the most. And guess who led the NFL in yards per attempt on outside zone rushes?

You already know, it was Raheem Mostert. He averaged 6.2 yards on 69 outside zone attempts. The next-highest rate among qualifiers was 5.5. The matchup is spectacular. This game could quickly turn into a shootout. And we have seen Miami lean on Mostert as the primary RB at times before.

In 2022, when incumbent starter Chase Edmonds faltered, Mostert was ready to take over. From Weeks 4-8, Mostert operated as the clear lead back. During that time, he was the RB19 in Fantasy. He handled 75% of Miami's RB rush attempts, for an average of 15.4 attempts per game. That's plenty against this defense.

I have Mostert ranked as a top-20 Fantasy RB for Week 1. I'm comfortable starting him ahead of Najee Harris, Rachaad White, Cam Akers, and James Conner to name a few.

Stay away from Najee Harris and George Pickens, and start this Steeler instead

George Pickens only drew a target on 14.5% of his routes as a rookie. That's a brutal starting point to a career. The list of receivers who posted a rate below 15% their rookie season is basically just Davante Adams and a bunch of forgotten names. Could Pickens be the next Davante Adams? Let's not get ahead of ourselves. First we need to see him make some serious strides as a route runner to give himself a chance of drawing enough targets to be relevant in Fantasy.

The problem for Pickens was his route tree. As a rookie, Pickens' average route depth – or the distance from the line of scrimmage at which his first cut came, on average – was 10.4 yards. That was the sixth-highest mark at the WR position.

That's a problem. Players who had an average route depth above 10 yards only drew a target on 17% of their routes on average. For reference, 17% is Darius Slayton/Gabe Davis territory. And the only reason that the group average was even that high was because Justin Jefferson and Chris Olave were doing heavy lifting in pulling that group average up.

Now you might say, Jefferson and Olave were great for Fantasy. If they can do it while running such deep routes, why can't Pickens? Well, let's get even further into the weeds. Yes, Jefferson and Olave had a remarkably deep average route depth like Pickens, but their route trees were far more nuanced.

Just over half of Pickens' routes as a rookie were go routes, corner routes, or post routes. Those are space-clearing routes. They serve an important role for an offense but do not result in targets. In 2022, when running those routes, WRs were only targeted 12.8% of the time.

More than half of Pickens' routes came from that grouping. For reference, 34% of Olave's routes and 28% of Jefferson's routes came from that grouping. Could this usage change for Pickens in Year 2? Absolutely. It should. I hope it does. I don't expect it to. This preseason, 53% of Pickens' routes came from that grouping.

This usage is problematic for Pickens' entire 2023 outlook but is particularly problematic as we look forward to his Week 1 matchup. The 49ers don't allow deep passing. They use a ton of Cover-2 and Cover-4. They had the fourth-lowest opponent average depth of target in 2022. I don't like this spot for Pickens.

I don't like it for Najee Harris, either. The Steelers most frequently used rushing scheme is inside zone, and no defense allowed fewer yards per rush on inside zone attempts than the Niners. So, if Harris and the ground game struggle to get things going and San Francisco's extra defenders down the field make Pickens and Diontae Johnson risky targets, who is the logical beneficiary?

It's got to be Pat Freiermuth, who is coming off of a really encouraging second season. He could soak up a lot of targets over the middle in this matchup. Freiermuth sits as the TE6 in my Week 1 rankings.

Roll the dice on Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims in Week 1 if Jerry Jeudy doesn't suit up.

Cortland Sutton has been 32% more likely to be targeted when Jerry Jeudy hasn't been on the field over the past three seasons. His yard per route run rate rises from 0.95 when sharing the field with Jeudy to 2.19 with Jeudy sidelined. Those are some really pronounced splits. Sutton is a whole different player for Fantasy when Jeudy isn't out there.

In Week 1, he draws a perfect matchup to take advantage of Jeudy's absence in. The Las Vegas Raiders had the NFL's third-highest opponent passer rating on pass attempts that traveled 15 or more air yards in 2022. When teams attacked down the field against the Raiders, it worked.

We know that's Courtland Sutton's game. And if you watched preseason action or any of his time at Oklahoma, you know that is absolutely Marvin Mims' game too. And he is very good at it.

Among wide receivers drafted into the NFL over the past five years with at least 75 career deep targets, none have a higher yards per target rate on their deep targets than Mims.

Another fun Mims stat: As an 18-year-old at Oklahoma, he led the Sooners in receiving yards and touchdowns while only running a route on 35% of the dropbacks. That's crazy! Mims was only on the field for roughly a third of the snaps and he led the team in receiving. The dude is good. Mims' 4.38 speed allows him to produce splash plays, even if not filling a full-time role, which may be important early on as a rookie. The Broncos are really thin at WR, though, so they might not have the luxury of easing him in. Mims could play a ton, and he absolutely could torch this soft Raiders defense.

The Jets are a good matchup for James Cook and Dalton Kincaid

According to PFF's coverage grade, the Jets CBs ranked No. 1, No. 18, and No. 23 among 118 qualified corners. There are several teams who don't have one corner who is as good as the Jets' third corner!

You might not be surprised, then, to hear that no team allowed fewer Fantasy points to the WR position than the Jets.

We expect Kincaid to play a prominent role from the slot and TE position, but we have yet to see how the Bills will use him with Dawson Knox also available. so it's tough to know how many routes or targets we can reasonably expect.

Of the two, Cook's receiving role is the one that I feel the most confident in projecting. Cook profiles as an elite receiving threat out of the backfield. Over the years, we've seen Josh Allen increase the rate at which he targets the backfield, and 2022 was the first season in which he targeted the RB position at a rate that was above the NFL average. The Bills have been clear about their desire to utilize their RBs more through the air, but Devin Singletary just was not the right fit.

Cook is.

The positive aDOT is key. Heath Cummings and I were joined by Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life this offseason for a special Beyond the Boxscore/FFT Dynasty crossover episode – it was awesome – here's a link, if you're curious.

Dwain highlighted the importance of a positive aDOT when it comes to predicting the year-over-year "stickiness" or predictability of a running back's target rate. Dwain's contention was that a positive aDOT indicates a team that is going out of its way to include a back in the passing attack.

Only Breece Hall had a higher aDOT at the RB position than James Cook in 2022. Cook's per-route data was really strong as a rookie, too.

Each offseason, I publish an article on SportsLine in which I detail which RBs could potentially average 5+ targets per game. That number has proven to be an important one for bringing the upside to finish as the true RB1 overall in Fantasy, and so that's the lens that I approach the article through. In that article, I laid out a realistic path to 100+ targets for Cook in 2023, which seems insane. But the math checks out!

Cook has an opportunity to immediately pile up targets in Week 1 against this Jets defense. I have him ranked just behind Mostert as the RB20 for Half-PPR formats. I would not start Cook ahead of Mostert or Montgomery. If you've followed my advice this draft season, you likely ended up with both Dameon Pierce and Cook on a few rosters. I would start Cook ahead of Pierce in Week 1. I'm worried about Houston's banged-up offensive line, and a Week 1 draw against Baltimore is absolutely brutal. Sportsbooks have the Texans only implied for 17.25 points -- that's the same territory as the quarterback-less Arizona Cardinals.

Van Jefferson and Puka Nacua are intriguing flex plays in deep leagues

I expected to be lower than consensus on Van Jefferson's outlook for Week 1, but I left pretty encouraged after digging into his data more.

I have Jefferson ranked as the WR44 for Week 1, ahead of Pickens, Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, and Jakobi Meyers. I also believe it would be totally justifiable to start him over Nico Collins, Jordan Addison, Terry McLaurin, Treylon Burks, Gabe Davis, or even Marquise Brown. I'm excited about each of those players for 2023, but each brings their own concerns into Week 1.

Not far behind Jefferson (WR52) in my rankings, we find rookie Puka Nacua.

I'm doing my best to not let my personal interest (Nacua is my most-drafted WR this offseason) bleed into my Week 1 analysis. The best approach to handling Nacua is surely to wait and see; he's a Round 5 rookie playing his first pro game.

But it is absolutely within the range of Nacua's realistic outcomes to lead the Rams in targets. Nacua's collegiate data paints him as a potential target earner and high-level Fantasy contributor. That's exactly what we saw from him when he was healthy. By his final season at BYU, the offense was running through Nacua, and he looked unstoppable.

That was never the case for Van Jefferson. His career collegiate target per route run rate was just 20.8%, and his single-season high was 23.2%. Nacua had a career 31.4% rate!

Some flex options I prefer Nacua to in Half-PPR formats:

RB -- Rashaad Penny, Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary, De'Von Achane, Tank Bigsby
WR -- JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Darnell Mooney, Zay Jones, Tyler Boyd, Jonathan Mingo, Quentin Johnston
TE -- Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Sam LaPorta, Gerald Everett, Chigoziem Okonkwo

Jake Ferguson and Luke Musgrave could get things rolling right away in Week 1

You'll notice that both Ferguson and Musgrave made the above list of players I'd start Nacua over, while both Evan Engram and Dalton Schultz did. Already, these two late-round tight ends are projecting better than some of the mid-round tight ends.

I was asked which of Ferguson and Musgrave brought a higher ceiling for Week 1 -- you can find my thoughts on Twitter. I really like the set up for both tight ends, and they're at the top of my priority list if replacing Travis Kelce or George Kittle.

Musgrave ranks just ahead (TE10) of Ferguson (TE11), but that's with the assumption that Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs will suit up. If those two sit, the only tight ends who would rank ahead of Musgrave are Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Tyler Higbee, and Dallas Goedert.

Sorting out the fringe starter range at each position

Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.

QB 

I count 23 viable starting options at the position this week. That's a lot!

Group 1: Quarterbacks with the upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points

Tier 1 -- Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa
Tier 2 -- Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell

If looking for upside, these are your guys.

Implied point total for each quarterback's team in Week 1:

25.75 points -- Cousins
25.5 points -- Smith
24.25 points -- Wilson
24 points -- Goff
24 points -- Tagovailoa
22.75 points -- Howell
22.25 points -- Watson
22 points -- Rodgers
21.5 points -- Jones
19.75 points -- Richardson

Jones and Richardson don't bring the touchdown upside that the rest of this group does, but they make up for it with rushing ability.

Miami's implied total stands out to me. Early in the week, I had Tagovailoa ranked as a top-10 QB in a game that is expected to produce a lot of total points. The Dolphins actually aren't expected to score a ton, though, and this Chargers defense seemed to have Miami's offense figured out in 2022. Tagovailoa completed 10 of 28 passes for 145 yards in that game.

Cousins and Smith are quite similar from a range of outcomes standpoint. Both could throw for 3-5 touchdowns, or they could see limited volume in a game script where their team maintains control and leans on the ground game. They rank at the top of this group, and I expect both offenses to want to come out firing. If you want a "safer" bet, Goff or potentially one of the quarterbacks from our next grouping might appeal to you.

Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup

Tier 1 -- Dak Prescott
Tier 2 -- Derek Carr, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love

I don't see many paths to big upside for these four. The expected game environments that they'll play in aren't all that appealing from a projected play volume standpoint. But each should have success moving the ball in their respective matchups.

RB 

There are 19 players I feel really good about starting, and things get pretty thin after that.

Group 1: There's definitely upside, but I'm not sure what type of role to expect

Tier 1 -- Rachaad White, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders, Khalil Herbert
Tier 2 -- Breece Hall, Javonte Williams, Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson
Tier 3 -- D'Andre Swift, Jerick McKinnon, Zach Charbonnet, Rashaad Penny, De'Von Achane

White ranks just behind Mostert and Cook for me. I could see him starting his season off with a bang, although I do expect Minnesota's defense to be better in 2023. Do we see Sean Tucker cut into his workload at all on early downs?

Dobbins and Sanders may be eased in. If they're the clear-cut leaders in their backfield, both backs bring top-15 Fantasy RB potential.

The Bears might be able to control the game on the ground against Green Bay, and I expect Khalil Herbert to handle 50-60% of the RB rush attempts. If that estimation ends up being too low, Herbert might be one of the highest scorers at the RB position in Week 1. He's a great player, and he couldn't have asked for much softer of an opening game matchup than this.

Of course, health-related workload concerns exist for both Hall and Williams. For Gibson, the concern is that Washington builds an early lead and leans on their early-down grinder in Brian Robinson.

Group 2: These players make a lot of sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection

Tier 1 -- Brian Robinson, Jamaal Williams
Tier 2 -- Samaje Perine, AJ Dillon, Tyler Allgeier

The lack of projected targets and relatively low implied team totals in Washington and New Orleans left both Robinson and Williams lower in my projections than I expected. Both backs are positioned well from a usage standpoint, and I'm quite comfortable starting them. They might not bring quite as much hypothetical upside as the backs from Group 1, but I feel a lot more confident in their workload.

Group 3: We're betting on volume. There's not much upside here.

Tier 1 -- Dameon Pierce, Najee Harris
Tier 2 -- Cam Akers, James Conner

Implied team totals for the respective offenses that these backs play in:

20 points -- Akers
19.25 points -- Harris
17.25 points -- Pierce
15.25 points -- Conner

Commanding all or most of the backfield usage doesn't matter much if your offense spends most of the day running three unsuccessful plays and then punting. I'd start Dobbins and Robinson ahead of every back from this group. There's inherent risk with using players attached to the Rams, Steelers, Texans, or Cardinals offense in Week 1, and the only realistic path to upside comes through big plays. That pretty much puts Harris and Conner out of play, since they never create big plays. I'm avoiding this group wherever I can.

WR 

We have some really difficult decisions to make this week

The difference between the WR24 and WR45 in my projections is only 2.7 points this week. Usually, wide receiver is the position that I feel the most confident in predicting. This week, about all that I am confident in at the position is that we can have no confidence beyond the top-20ish wide receivers. There are realistic paths to downside for players like Deebo Samuel and Drake London, but I have both ranked as top-24 options at the position.

Group 1: I think we can trust these players

Tier 1 -- Brandon Aiyuk, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, Jahan Dotson, Chris Godwin
Tier 2 -- Courtland Sutton, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks
Tier 3 -- Van Jefferson, Jakobi Meyers, Zay Jones, Tyler Boyd

Brandon Aiyuk draws a man-heavy Steelers coverage scheme, which provides him a boost. George Kittle also may miss this game, which would be another factor in his favor. And still, I find myself hesitant to start him. Brock Purdy just does not feel like a comfortable stylistic fit, and the Niners could control this game on the ground. Aiyuk should see enough volume to turn in a decent score, though, and he has the ability to break a long play at any time.

Hopkins, Johnson, and Godwin are all volume-based plays that don't project for an exciting Fantasy ceiling but are firmly in play if you need a dependable flex option. Dotson, on the other hand, does bring an exciting ceiling to the table. His path to reaching that ceiling projection is thin -- I don't see many likely outcomes where Washington needs to pass more than 30 times against Arizona. The matchup is so juicy for Dotson, though, and he and Sam Howell bring a ton of momentum into this game after a hot preseason. It may only take 5-7 targets for Dotson to put up a huge score in Week 1.

Group 2: Mystery Box

Tier 1 -- Deebo Samuel, Drake London, DJ Moore, Michael Pittman
Tier 2 -- Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kadarius Toney, Michael Thomas, Marvin Mims, Nico Collins, Skyy Moore, Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison, Gabe Davis, Treylon Burks, Elijah Moore
Tier 3 -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, Puka Nacua, Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Jonathan Mingo

Man-heavy coverage schemes slightly diminish Samuel's projected efficiency, but he enters this season with a chip on his shoulder and should have plenty of opportunities to prove that he's back. I do worry that San Francisco might not need to pass much in this spot, which could lead to a disappointing score.

The same concerns exist for Drake London. Also, I expect Carolina's defense to be better than people might anticipate in 2023. London projects quite well (WR19) for me in Week 1, and I'm psyched to see what he has in store for us in Year 2. I just can't help but worry that we'll get 22 pass attempts from the Falcons if Carolina's offense stalls out.

I really changed my perception on Pittman as this offseason went on, going as far as to write him up as a breakout candidate. I could see a heaping of targets as the Colts play catch-up in Week 1, and it's not as if Indy's projected total (19.75 points) is in the Cardinals/Texans/Panthers territory. I am fine rolling the dice on Pittman if you need upside this week.

Group 3: I'd really rather avoid them

Tier 1 -- Marquise Brown
Tier 2 -- Adam Thielen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard
Tier 3 -- Quentin Johnston, Rondale Moore, Jalin Hyatt, Rashee Rice

We don't know who Hollywood's quarterback is going to be, his team is implied for 15.25 points, and he's dealing with a hamstring issue.

I don't trust the health or ability to get open for anyone in Tier 2.

Tier 3's receivers may be relevant at some point this season, but their projected Week 1 role is dubious.

TE 

We have options! I count 16 (17 if Kittle suits up) tight ends who you could start in Week 1 with some reasonable optimism. Pat Freiermuth is my TE6, and that's where the "must start" list ends for TE this week, in my opinion.

Group 1 -- Upside shots

Tier 1 -- Kyle Pitts, David Njoku
Tier 2 -- George Kittle, Luke Musgrave, Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid
Tier 3 -- Evan Engram, Gerald Everett, Sam LaPorta, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Juwan Johnson

Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly

Tier 1 -- Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz
Tier 2 -- Hayden Hurst, Noah Gray, Hunter Henry

Group 3 -- You can surely find a better option, right?

Tier 1 -- Mike Gesicki, Tyler Conklin, Dawson Knox
Tier 2 -- Cade Otton, Trey McBride
Tier 3 -- Noah Fant, Greg Dulcich, Taysom Hill, Irv Smith Jr.

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's or Live Streams, when I set aside time for lineup questions!

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