There's a lot of reasons to tread very lightly Thursday night. The Dolphins have a janky injury report with availability of key players up in the air on the eve of the game. A horrible storm has cut into Miami's already truncated work week, and the Bengals have tricked more bettors thus far this season than they have treated (too soon for Halloween fodder?).

At the beginning of the week, with the line much closer, I really liked the Bengals in this spot. But we are over a 3-point spread now, and the number of unknowns about this contest have only seemed to grow with each passing day. I believe the Bengals are going to win this football game. But I also believe, as has been the case throughout this season, it might be ugly. The average NFL game this year has produced 42 points.

The Dolphins are bound to be a little overvalued with them being one of only two remaining unbeaten teams, but there has been plenty of good fortune involved in that. And the Bengals seemed to learn a few lessons last week about truncating the scope of their offense, giving the offensive line more help and being willing to keep it simple and win ugly against inferior teams. I like them to crawl back to .500 in the short week at home. But I don't love much here.

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Spread: Bengals -4

If I have to pick a side here, I'll pick the one with the healthy quarterback. Joe Burrow is super accurate and he still has a bounty of weapons, even if they aren't getting unlocked down the field as much as he'd like. The Bengals defensive front is stout, while Miami's unit has not looked as ferocious as the group that closed 2021 on a tear. Neither team can run the ball much, but I imagine both of them will try to keep this close and navigate the flow of the game. With Miami's defense on the field for more than 40 minutes and 90 plays in the heat on Sunday, I'll give the points here, but this is a coin flip.

Total: Under 47

The under is 29-18-1 this season, the highest win percentage through three weeks since 1991. The Bengals have been dogged by slow starts and Miami had trouble moving the ball on the Patriots, the Ravens (until a bizarre fourth quarter loaded with Baltimore coverage breakdowns) and the Bills last week. If Tua Tagovailoa can't play, there is a big drop off to Teddy Bridgewater, especially when it comes to big plays and quick strikes. None of the Bengals' games have approached this figure this season, and I'm not banking on offensive fireworks here, either.

First Half Total: Under 23

As noted, slow starts have been an issue and I expect both of these young coaches to play it close to the vest on a short week.

Player Props

Tyler Boyd Over 41.5 Yards (-115)

The Bengals are trying to alter their attack some, and the slot receiver became quite important in Week 3. I expect more volume and opportunities in that regard here. Miami tends to blitz a lot and this is a healthy hot read opportunity for Boyd, too. Throwing to Joe Mixon has been decidedly hit or miss, so I see Burrow looking this way quite a bit again.

Jason Sanders Over 1.5 Field Goals (+104)

I'm leaning into a lot of kicker props in this Era Of The Under. Sure, Sanders has only attempted two all season – and made them both – but that feels a little random to me. Miami being beat up on offense, and the nature of a short week, has me thinking Mike McDaniel isn't quite as all-out in fourth down scenarios. At plus money, I'll take it.

Same-Game Parlay (+480) 

• Bengals Moneyline
• Under 47
• Tyler Boyd Over 41.5 Yards

At the time of this writing some Dolphins props still are not on the board pending the status of their starting quarterback. Of what is available, let me lean into the knowns.

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