Arizona vs. Iowa State odds, prediction: 2026 Big 12 Tournament picks from proven model

The 2026 Big 12 Tournament continues on Friday with a semifinal matchup between top-seed Arizona and No. 5 Iowa State. Both teams rolled in the second round with Arizona blowing out UCF and Iowa State dominating Texas Tech. 

Tipoff from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is set for 7 p.m. ET. The Wildcats are 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 143.5. Before making any Iowa State vs. Arizona picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on an 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated this matchup 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time!

So who wins Arizona vs. Iowa State, and which side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!