Alabama vs. Michigan odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The fourth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide battle the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines in an NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday. Alabama is coming off a 90-65 win over Texas Tech on Sunday in the second round, while Michigan defeated Saint Louis 95-72 on Saturday. The Crimson Tide (25-9), who tied for second in the Southeastern Conference at 13-5, have won two in a row. The Wolverines (33-3), who won the Big Ten Conference regular-season title at 19-1, have also won two straight. Alabama may be without guard Aden Holloway (personal), while L.J. Cason (knee) is out for Michigan.

Tip-off from the United Center in Chicago is set for 7:35 p.m. ET. Alabama leads the all-time series 2-1, including a 68-66 win in their last meeting in 2009. Michigan is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Alabama vs. Michigan odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 174.5. Before making any Alabama vs. Michigan picks, you NEED to see the basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Alabama vs. Michigan 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of the simulations!

So who wins Alabama vs. Michigan, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!