Advanced model updates Colts' projected win total

After going 10-6 in Frank Reich's first season at the helm and fielding a top-10 scoring offense and top-10 scoring defense, the Indianapolis Colts entered the 2019 season with legitimate title aspirations. Little did they know, the looming retirement of Andrew Luck would eventually cast too large a shadow as the Colts blew a 5-2 start to go 7-9 and miss the postseason entirely.

Jacoby Brissett wasn't solely responsible for the downturn, but Indianapolis was certainly less threatening down the field with Brissett than they had been with Luck and the Colts addressed the quarterback position in NFL free agency by signing future Hall of Famer Philip Rivers to a one-year, $25 million deal. Rivers is coming off a disappointing season by his standards but the Colts are still banking on him being a considerable improvement at the position and then the Colts used the 2020 NFL Draft to punch up the playmaking ability around Rivers.

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Indianapolis originally owned the No. 13 overall pick in the draft but traded that pick to San Francisco in exchange for DeForest Buckner, giving it a potentially dominant interior lineman to help free up Darius Leonard to make plays sideline to sideline. Then the Colts used their two second-round picks on USC wide receiver Michael Pittman and Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor.

Both of those players should factor heavily into Indianapolis' offensive plans in 2020 and if they adjust quickly, should give the Colts an offense it can rely on again. With their remaining seven picks, the Colts added depth on both sides of the ball with Utah safety Julian Blackmon and Ball State offensive lineman Danny Pinter looking like potential future starters. They also attempted to address the quarterback room long-term by drafting former Georgia and Washington quarterback Jacob Eason in the fourth round.

Ultimately, Rivers, Marlon Mack, Taylor, Parris Campbell, Pittman, T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle make up a pretty talented skill group offensively and the Colts offensive line is one of the best in football. If Buckner can help move the defense back towards the upper third of the NFL, this is a team that could bounce back rather quickly from the sudden loss of Luck.

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Colts win an average of 8.1 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 8.7 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Indianapolis wins the division 32.5 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 47.9 percent of the time. The Colts are also currently 25-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for 12th-best odds in the NFL.