About 50-50 chance player Detroit Tigers take first overall in MLB Draft will become All-Star

To prevent tanking, the NBA and NHL both have draft lotteries. That's not the case in Major League Baseball with the 2020 draft set to begin Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET on the MLB Network and ESPN. Wednesday features picks 1-37 -- the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. The Detroit Tigers are on the clock thanks to an MLB-worst 47-114 record in 2019.

Fairly recent history says the Tigers have about a 50 percent chance of landing a future All-Star at No. 1 overall – the MLB Draft is a much bigger crapshoot than the NBA, NHL or NFL versions in part because so many high schoolers are chosen in baseball. If a player doesn't sign with a team that drafted him out of high school, he can't be drafted again until after his junior year in college.

Over the span of 1991-2015, 12 of the 25 players picked first overall have become All-Stars. Why are we only using through 2015? Because it generally takes MLB prospects a few years to reach the majors and none of the top overall picks chosen since 2016 have done so yet.

Some of the biggest-name players to go first overall since 2007: Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg and David Price. Harper is the only player picked since then to win league MVP honors. Price won a Cy Young. Some flops who have gone first over that span: Tim Beckham, Mark Appel and Brady Aiken.

It's the third time that Detroit has held the top pick. In 1997, the team took Rice University pitcher Matt Anderson. He had a very disappointing career largely due to injury. In 2018, the Tigers selected Auburn pitcher Casey Mize, and he's considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Mize likely would have reached the majors in 2020 had it been a normal season. Maybe he still will.

The most recent No. 1 overall pick to reach the majors was Dansby Swanson from 2015 – he was picked by Arizona but debuted in the bigs with Atlanta in 2016 and hasn't lived up to the hype yet.

Detroit is expected to take Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson or Vanderbilt third baseman/outfielder Austin Martin first Wednesday. Of the 14 position players taken first overall between 1991-2005, 11 have become All-Stars. Only three of 11 pitchers in that span have. 

Because of various state regulations, U.S. sportsbooks like William Hill are not allowed to release props on the MLB Draft as of now. 

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