2026 Food City 500 odds, picks: NASCAR projected leaderboard from proven model

After a week off, the Cup Series resumes and heads to Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday for the 2026 Food City 500. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET for what used to be a dirt race but moved to concrete back in 2024. Since then, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have notched NASCAR at Bristol victories, while Joe Gibbs Racing has won three of the last four races overall. Kyle Busch is a five-time winner of this race, and a victory at the Food City 500 2026 would tie him with Rusty Wallace for the most all-time.

Larson tops the 2026 NASCAR Bristol odds board at +340, followed by Hamlin (+470), Ryan Blaney (+600) and Christopher Bell (+650). Tyler Reddick, who sits atop the NASCAR standings and leads the Cup Series with four victories, is a +2500 longshot to utilize in Food City 500 bets.

Before making any 2026 Food City 500 picks or NASCAR predictions, you need to see what auto racing insider Mike McClure has to say.

McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action, taking factors such as matchups and statistical trends into account. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks could have seen HUGE returns.

For NASCAR at Bristol, the model is fading Ryan Blaney (+600), saying he barely cracks the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. Another surprise: Joey Logano (+1900) is projected to make a strong run towards the title. Logano is a two-time Bristol winner with both recent success at the track and on the Cup Series. He placed fifth in his last Bristol start and is coming off a third-place finish in his most recent race this season.

The model has also identified three longshots of over +2000 who make runs for the top of the leaderboard, including two massive longshots of at least +4000, potentially netting any backer a huge payday!

So who wins the 2026 Food City 500, and which longshots could stun NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that nailed 11 winners last year, and find out!