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2024 NFL Week 7 betting power ratings: Jets and Bills trade for top receivers and how to value all 32 teams

Get the edge over the sportsbooks in Week 7 and beyond by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines

It's been quite the week for the Jets. Here it is, in a nutshell ...

  • Last Tuesday: HC Robert Saleh fired, Jeff Ulbrich installed as interim head coach
  • Thursday: OC Nathaniel Hackett relieved of playcalling duties in favor of Todd Downing
  • Also Thursday: Holdout Haason Reddick dropped as client by his agents
  • Monday: Reddick hires Drew Rosenhaus as new representation
  • Monday vs. Bills: Defense allows three long TD drives in first four possessions to fall behind 20-10 late in first half
  • End of first half: Aaron Rodgers hits longtime teammate Allen Lazard on a Hail Mary for a critical touchdown
  • Second half: Jets tie game after Bills miss FG, then miss two FGs of their own before Bills take lead with short FG
  • Final drive: Rodgers fumbles on sack, turnover overturned on replay, officials wrap up banner day by throwing four flags on next five plays, an open Mike Williams slips on deep pass and allows a Bills interception while injuring himself in the process, Jets lose
  • Tuesday: Jets allow Reddick to seek trade
  • Also Tuesday: Jets trade for Davante Adams

It's a lot to take in, but what matters for this space is how it affects our valuation of the Jets moving forward. For starters, nothing in the Reddick situation changes our spread power ratings, which are based solely around how to value a team in the current NFL week. A player's absence is already baked in, so trading that player changes nothing. If Reddick were to reverse course, report to the team and then be confirmed to play on Sunday, I'd bump the Jets up a half-point.

Next comes the results from the Monday loss to the Bills. And again, I'm not making any adjustments. The officials got flag-happy for four quarters, resulting in 22 accepted penalties and Rodgers lambasting the officiating after the game. I didn't note it above, but the first Jets touchdown featured Garrett Wilson making a fantastic catch at the back of the end zone and clearly dragging his toes in bounds for the score. At least, it was clear if you were watching the bird's eye view, not so much for the line judge parked two feet from the action, as he initially ruled the play incomplete. They eventually got the call right, but it was indicative of a game where the officials were a main storyline, something the NFL never wants to see. And as a result, I can't really take anything away from the result of the game. It did look like the Jets offense had more success with Downing calling the plays, for what it's worth.

Then you have the Adams trade. He hasn't been on the field since Week 3 due to a hamstring injury, and we'll see if that's been magically healed now that he's rejoining Rodgers. Even though the team does have quality receivers on the roster, his familiarity with Rodgers should give the offense a boost anyway. Combine that with Downing making a positive impact and I'm bumping the Jets up a full point in my spread power ratings despite the loss Monday.

The Bills get a half-point bump for adding Amari Cooper to their receiving corps as well. It may take some time to fully incorporate him into the offense but anything he can provide out the gate would be great for a Bills team that saw Ray Davis lead the team in receiving on Monday and that hasn't had a wide receiver top 50 yards since Week 4.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 7 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players! 

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R.J. White
R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

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