2024 NFL Week 11 betting power ratings: Massive playoff implications abound, plus how to value all 32 teams
Get the edge over the sportsbooks in Week 11 and beyond by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines
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The confluence of events of the first 10 weeks of the NFL season has unquestionably made Week 11 the best slate of football of the entire year. It feels like a playoff round with several high-profile matchups that will be critical to how the final standings shake out.
The action gets started on Thursday with the Commanders and Eagles squaring off for the first time this year in the series that will decide the NFC East. A line of Eagles -3.5 implies that Philly is clearly the better team, and is likely a reflection of the market treating Washington like it hasn't beaten anyone of note. But the Commanders' list of wins includes a Cardinals team that now looks pretty good and a Bengals team that had Tee Higgins for that game, both on the road. And the Eagles' current five-game win streak includes the same Bengals team but without Higgins, plus four terrible opponents. Do we really know which of these teams is better? The market seems to think we do.
The matchups with huge divisional consequences continue Sunday with Ravens-Steelers. Pittsburgh's schedule during its 7-2 start has been pretty light, and from here the Steelers have all six divisional matchups plus showdowns with the Eagles and Chiefs. They seemed locked into the playoffs at this point, but it won't take many mistakes to finish 9-8 or even 8-9 in that run. Beating the Ravens at home to start this stretch could be critical to establishing themselves as a true contender.
The biggest heavyweight fight involves the Chiefs heading to Orchard Park to face the Bills, currently as 2.5-point underdogs despite their undefeated record. The Bills have beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City in three straight regular seasons, but it has mattered little once the postseason rolls around. Injuries to the Bills' receiving options could be a critical factor in how this game plays out.
One of these matchups appears way off when you compare my spread power ratings and account for home-field advantage, and I'll break down which one that is below.
What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success.
Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 11 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!
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