The Lions are getting a lot of "best team in the NFC" buzz after yet another strong win on the surface Sunday, but even though the Packers scored only 14 points, clearly there are issues on the defensive side that needed to be addressed. Not only have the Lions managed zero sacks in the last two games, but a clearly limited Jordan Love led the Packers to 6.6 yards per play in bad weather on Sunday, gaining more than 50 yards on six different drives. The week before, the Titans had five drives of at least 48 yards with only two ending in points as the Lions' special teams unit carried the day.
The lack of a pass rush has been at least somewhat addressed by the addition of Za'Darius Smith in a trade with the Browns. He's still a great player who may not be as great this year as he was the past two, and I don't think there's any argument he completely makes up for the loss of Aidan Hutchinson. I've moved the Lions up a half-point in my power ratings, but that isn't enough to make them the top team in the NFC. Another hidden issue may be on the offensive side, where Jared Goff's performances have been so extremely positive that there has to be at least some negative regression coming. I don't see Goff falling off a cliff by any means, but he's not going to keep completing 80% of his passes week in and week out either.
The Lions have a top-tier offense, and the Smith trade gives them a chance at having a good defense. That should keep the Lions in Super Bowl contention deep into January, but we could easily see the defense give up 400 yards to good offenses in the playoffs and Detroit eventually lose a shootout, which is what happened last postseason. Even though I'm rooting for them and my +1300 Super Bowl ticket from before the season, I believe the market is overrating them just a tad at this point of the season.
What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success.
Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 10 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!
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