We're still weeks away from the NFL Draft, but now is the perfect time to get some exposure to longshot props in your portfolio. The betting market tends to overestimate the certainty of consensus information at this time of the news cycle, and last year our first look at the draft was unable to unearth some good value plays such as the Eagles drafting Jalen Carter (who was expected to be taken earlier by the consensus at the time) at +600 and the Falcons using their first pick on a running back at +350 in our breakdown of the first 10 picks, which also pegged Anthony Richardson to be taken fourth overall ahead of Will Levis.

But bigger swings can pay off as well. We liked Trey Lance to go No. 3 overall when the consensus was that Mac Jones would be the pick, and we hit Baker Mayfield to go No. 1 at +2500 way back in 2018 as well. One of my better plays late in the process last year was also Tyree Wilson to go No. 7 at +1000. All it takes is one unexpected pick early on to alter the trajectory of the draft, and the Cardinals trading from No. 3 to No. 12 and then to No. 6 to take Paris Johnson was one storyline that had cascading effects to expectations.

I've identified 10 plays at +1500 or longer that I believe present great value for bettors who are willing to expect the unexpected and deviate from consensus wisdom at a time when it has less value than is presented in the market. The list also includes four plays at +5000 or longer if you're interested in taking some big swings. All we have to do is hit one of them to be in the black, and these are all odds I can see shrinking as we get closer to Draft Day.

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