2023 NCAA Tournament bracket strategy: 5 vs. 12 games usually lead to at least one first-round upset in March Madness

No NCAA Tournament bracket is complete without choosing at least one No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 in the first round -- it's happened at least once almost every year. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a minimum of one No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 5 in 32 of 37 tournaments. Overall, the No. 12 is 53-95 in this matchup, a winning percentage of 35.8.

The only years since 1985 in which at least one No. 12 seed didn't advance were in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018. As recently as 2019, three No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round: Murray State (beat Marquette), Oregon (beat Wisconsin) and Liberty (beat Mississippi State). The 12 seeds also won three games in 2013 and 2014.

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Last year, two 12-seeds advanced: Richmond beat Iowa 67-63 as a 10-point underdog, and New Mexico State beat UConn 70-63 as a 7-point underdog. Note that just two 12-seeds have reached the Elite Eight and none have gotten to the Final Four.

But how do the teams stack up this year?

Before you lock in your bracket, let's examine this year's 5-seeds and 12-seeds.

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The No. 5 seeds this season all won a league title: San Diego State (Mountain West regular season and conference tournament), Miami (ACC regular season), Duke (ACC Tournament) and Saint Mary's (WCC regular season). But the No. 12 seeds are far from slouches.

Charleston (31-3) won the CAA regular-season and tournament title. Coach Pat Kelsey's team shoots a ton of 3-pointers -- a national-high 47% of all its shots are from deep. The 31 wins are the most in Charleston's Division I era and tied with the 1986-87 team for the second most overall. The Cougars' only NCAA Tournament win came in 1997 vs. Maryland as a No. 12 seed. They are 5-point underdogs Thursday in South Region action in Orlando vs. San Diego State.

Drake (27-7) won the Missouri Valley Conference title with a 77-51 rout of regular-season Bradley in the conference title game. It's Drake's sixth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, including the second during coach Darian DeVries' tenure. In 2021, Drake beat Wichita State in the First Four before falling to USC in the Round of 64. The Bulldogs are only +2.5 against Miami in Midwest Region on Friday in Albany. The Hurricanes might be without big man Norchad Omier (13.6 points, 9.7 rebounds per game) due to injury.

VCU (27-7) seemingly should have been seeded higher after winning the regular-season and tournament titles in the Atlantic 10. The Rams have won nine straight games and 22 of their last 25 contests behind Ace Baldwin Jr., the A-10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. It's the third trip to the Dance for VCU under Mike Rhodes, but he's still seeking a tournament win. VCU is a 4-point dog against Saint Mary's in West Region action in Sacramento.

Finally, Oral Roberts (30-4) was the Summit League regular-season and tournament champion, accomplishing the feat without losing a single league game. The Golden Eagles haven't been beaten since a Jan. 9 out-of-conference contest at New Mexico. Star guard Max Abmas was a sophomore when he led Oral Roberts to the Sweet 16 in 2021. Abmas was named Summit League Player of the Year for a second time this season, averaging 22.2 PPG. This year's club is considered better than the team that upset Ohio State and Florida in the 2021 Dance before losing to Arkansas. Oral Roberts is a 6.5-point underdog against Duke in East Region action from Orlando on Thursday.

Expect the various books to post an over/under number of No. 12 seeds advancing later today. 

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