2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship picks, best bets: Rory McIlroy predictions from golf model that nailed 10 majors

The 2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs begin on Thursday, Aug. 10, when the FedEx St. Jude Championship tees off from TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn. Rory McIlroy is the defending FedEx Cup champion and he enters the postseason ranked third after racking up two victories and 10 top-10 finishes this season. Only the top 70 golfers in the regular season standings are eligible to play in the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship – down from 125 in years past.

Jon Rahm currently sits atop the FedEx Cup standings, followed by Scottie Scheffler, McIlroy, Max Homa and Wyndham Clark. According to the latest 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds, Scheffler is the +650 favorite, with McIlroy (+800) and Rahm (+800) next in line.

Rory McIlroy's Recent Form

McIlroy won the Genesis Scottish Open in July and he's finished T-9 or better in each of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. He missed the cut at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2022, but McIlroy will enter this year's tournament as one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour. In fact, McIlroy hasn't missed a cut since the 2023 Masters, and he's finished outside the top 10 just once in his last eight starts on tour. 

The four-time major champion has been able to secure those positive results thanks to his impeccable length off the tee. McIlroy currently ranks first in driving distance (325.8) and second in strokes gained: off the tee (1.073). And while he ranks 162nd in driving accuracy (53.45%), McIlroy can make up ground with his iron play. He ranks fourth in strokes gained: approach to green (0.832), which has helped McIlroy average 4.27 birdies per round, the seventh-best mark on the PGA Tour. 

Putting has also been a bit of a weakness for McIlroy this season. In fact, the 34-year-old enters the FedEx Cup Playoffs ranked 47th in putting average (1.740), 86th in strokes gained: putting (0.077) and 92nd in one-putt percentage (39.96%). 

McIlroy has won the FedEx Cup three times in his career, and he'll look to start fast with a strong showing at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship. The winner of this week's event will receive 2,000 FedEx Cup points, which could go a long way in determining the FedEx Cup champion. 

About TPC Southwind

McIlroy will be part of a strong contingent playing the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship. TPC Southwind will host the star-studded tournament, which is hosting a FedEx Cup Playoffs event for just the second time. The course features Bermuda greens, while offering plenty of challenging holes with a plethora of water hazards, plus undulating zoysia fairways. 

Designed by Ron Prichard, TPC Southwind opened in 1988. The par-70 layout rewards players who are able to hit the fairway and avoid the water. The course features narrow, tree-lined fairways with either a water hazard or a bunker in the landing area. In total, 11 of 18 holes feature some sort of water hazard, so precision will be paramount this week. TPC Southwind plays at approximately 7,243 yards.

Will Zalatoris defeated Sepp Straka in a playoff last season, but he'll be unable to defend his title at TPC Southwind after missing the majority of the year with a back injury. 

How will McIlroy fare at the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023, and which HUGE longshots make a serious run at the title? ... Join SportsLine right now to see who you can bank on to win the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship, and see which longshots make a run at the title, all from the model that's nailed 10 majors, including this year's Masters and Open Championship!