2022 Stanley Cup odds, free pick: Avalanche favored over Lightning (they play Thursday) to hoist Cup as second half of season begins Monday

The NHL comes out of its All-Star break on Monday – although every team is well past the halfway point of its 82-game regular-season schedule – and oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook favor the Colorado Avalanche at +475 over the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning (+750) to win the Stanley Cup. The Avalanche haven't won the Cup since 2001.

NHL bettors may remember that the Avalanche were favored entering the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs as well after winning the Presidents' Trophy, but Colorado was knocked off by Vegas in the second round. The playoff format was altered last year due to the divisional realignment due to COVID but is back to normal this season.

The key for Colorado could be to win the Presidents' Trophy again for home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs because the Avs are 20-2-2 on home ice – the team's 18-game winning streak at home ended in its final game last Tuesday in the upset of the season by Arizona. To win the Western Conference, Colorado is +200 with Vegas at +330. Now those two could only meet in the West Finals.

Tampa Bay plays in the crazy-hard Atlantic Division and it will be tough enough just to get to the East Finals. The Lightning would have to face the extremely talented Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the playoffs as things stand. The Leafs are +850 fifth-favorites to win the Stanley Cup – they have the longest drought in the NHL.

The Lightning are +400 Eastern Conference favorites and are 0-1 vs. Colorado this season if you are wondering, losing 4-3 in a shootout at home on Oct. 23. They play again Thursday in Denver in the obvious game of the week.

Florida (+800 to win Cup, +425 for East) leads the NHL with 69 points and it's a shame the Panthers and Lightning could only meet in the East semifinal round playing in the same division. Florida has been nearly as dominant at home as Colorado with a 23-3-0 record. The Panthers and Avalanche are tied for the league lead in scoring at 4.09 goals per game. Those teams are done playing this regular season, splitting their two games.

The SportsLine Projection Model has the Panthers and Avalanche in a virtual tie as favorites to win the Cup with about a 26.8 percent chance each via simulations.

Look out for Vegas (+800 to win first Cup) in the second half as the Golden Knights soon will see the season and team debut of Jack Eichel, the former No. 2 overall pick acquired from Buffalo back in November. His return off neck surgery is reportedly imminent. When healthy, Eichel is an elite talent as shown by 78 points in 68 games in his last healthy season in 2019-20 with the Sabres. Vegas would have a lot more than 57 points but was hammered by injury and COVID in the first half.

Montreal shockingly reached the Stanley Cup Final last summer before losing to Tampa Bay in five. The Canadiens are +75000 to win the Cup currently – don't waste your money, they aren't making the playoffs sitting with the fewest points in the NHL. It has been a disastrous, COVID- and injury-plagued season for the Habs.

This writer is fading the Avalanche to get to the Stanley Cup Final because they have a tougher road to the West Finals in the Central Division than Vegas does in the Pacific.

Free NHL pick: Florida over Vegas in Cup Final

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