2022 NFL rushing leader odds: Giants' injury-prone Saquon Barkley taking heavy action in free agent season

How bad do the top three picks of the 2018 NFL Draft look in retrospect now? Baker Mayfield was taken No. 1 and has already been discarded by the Browns. Saquon Barkley went No. 2 to the Giants and can't stay on the field. Sam Darnold was the third pick by the Jets and may never start in the league again. Barkley has been fairly productive when healthy, and he is taking among the most action of any player at Caesars Sportsbook to lead the NFL in rushing this year.

Barkley opened months ago as a +6000 long shot on this prop but is down to +2500. The former Penn State star has taken the second-most tickets and third-most handle at the book. Only the Titans' Derrick Henry (+650) has received more bets in this market, while Henry and the Colts' Jonathan Taylor (+400) have garnered more money. Henry led the league in rushing in 2019 & '20 and Taylor did last year.

As a rookie, Barkley was a monster with 1,307 yards on 261 rushes, an average of 5.0 yards per carry in winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, he has not come close to playing a full season since or to matching that yards-per-carry average.

In 2019, he had 1,003 yards on 217 carries (4.6 YPC) in 13 games. In 2020, Barkley tore his ACL early and had 34 yards on 19 carries (1.8 YPC) in two games. And last year in 13 games, he had 593 yards on 162 carries (3.7 YPC). His rushing yards over expectation per carry in 2021 was minus-0.28, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Barkley has averaged 3.46 yards per carry over the last two seasons, the worst among all NFL running backs with 150 attempts. This year, he's given an Over/Under total of 900.5 yards, which obviously wouldn't come close to leading the NFL.

It's certainly not Barkley's fault that the Giants have had lousy quarterback play for the most part since 2019 (usually Daniel Jones) or a terrible offensive line. New York did exercise Barkley's fifth-year rookie option, paying him $7,217,000 in 2022, but he's poised for potential free agency after the year. Teams simply don't slap the franchise tag on running backs.

"He's in the best shape I've ever seen him in. He is playing as good as I've seen him play since I've been here," said wide receiver David Sills V, who trains with Barkley in the offseason. "He's so confident right now. Not that he ever wasn't, but his confidence is on another level. So we're all behind him and excited to see what he does this year."

No Giant has led the NFL in rushing since 1951, which shocked me. New York opens the season Sunday at Tennessee and the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Barkley for 54 yards on 13.7 carries.

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