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2021 Cotton Bowl odds, picks: No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Alabama spread and predictions for Friday's CFP semifinal from advanced computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model is up almost $3,600 over the past five-plus years, and it has run 10,000 simulations for the 2021 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic between the Bearcats and Crimson Tide
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The top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) take on the No. 4 seed Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0) on Friday in the 2021 Cotton Bowl Classic for a right to play in the College Football Playoff final. The Bearcats are the first Group of Five team to reach the CFP, while Alabama is in it for the seventh time in eight years.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Crimson Tide are 13.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Cincinnati odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 57.5. (See the latest college football lines for the remaining bowl games on our college football odds page.)

Before making any Cincinnati vs. Alabama Cotton Bowl picks or CFP playoff predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also entered the third week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model has taken into account that Alabama has been here before, and QB Bryce Young leads an offense that scores 42.5 points per game (fourth in FBS). Young threw 43 TD passes, second-most in the nation, and just four interceptions in the regular season. He completed 68 percent of his throws for 4,322 yards (fourth-best) and averaged 9.4 per attempt (eighth). The Tide ranked seventh in the nation in total yards (304.6 per game), were third against the run (81.4) and had 46 sacks, third-most in FBS.

The model also has considered that the Bearcats are on a mission to prove they belong in the playoff. They beat a ranked Houston team in the AAC title game and got their signature win in October, a 24-13 victory against Notre Dame. Cincinnati's strength is its defense, which allows just 16.1 points per game (fifth in FBS) and ranks second against the pass (167.5 yards per game). It forced 29 turnovers (T-3) and is highlighted by CBs Ahmad Gardner (three interceptions) and Coby Bryant (four). It also had 37 sacks in the regular season. 

The SportsLine model has simulated Friday's Alabama vs. Cincinnati Cotton Bowl matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in your own picks.

Who wins Friday's Alabama vs. Cincinnati matchup in the Cotton Bowl Classic? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Cincinnati vs. Alabama spread you should be all over for Friday's Cotton Bowl, all from the computer model on a 43-30 run on its top-rated college football side picks!

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SportsLine Staff