2020 NFL Draft updates: Prop picks, analysis, Fantasy impact, updated futures
SportsLine recaps all the betting and Fantasy football news from the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
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The first round of the "virtual" 2020 NFL Draft is in the books, and below is a recap of every pick that went down with betting relevant numbers from William Hill sportsbook (where applicable), how the SportsLine Projected Model reacted to the picks and Fantasy football impacts of skill position players.
Rounds 2-3 are Friday with coverage starting at 7 p.m. ET. Follow us on Twitter (@SportsLine), Instagram and Facebook for more information and reaction all the way through the draft and beyond.
Which teams sail past their projected win totals? What is the SportsLine model's stunning Packers prediction? And how many wins will every NFL team have this season? ... See every projected win total, including the shocking prediction for the Packers, all from an uncanny computer model that crushed its NFL win total picks last year!
8:25 PM ET: LSU quarterback Joe Burrow was picked first overall on Thursday night to the Cincinnati Bengals. They have had a very mixed bag of No. 1 overall picks: Dan Wilkinson in 1994, Ki-Jana Carter (mega-bust) the next year and Carson Palmer in 2003. The SportsLine Projection Model forecast Burrow to add nearly two wins to Cincinnati's 2020 total compared to if the team stuck with Andy Dalton as the starter.
| Bengals | WINS | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Pre-pick | 4 | 24.9 | 0.10% | 0.90% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| w/Burrow | 5.8 | 36.3 | 0.80% | 8.20% | 0.09% | 0.04% |
| Impact | 1.8 | 11.4% | 0.70% | 7.30% | 0.06% | 0.03% |
Burrow is the third all-time LSU player to be picked No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft, joining Billy Cannon in 1960 and JaMarcus Russell (mega-bust) in 2007. The schools with the most all-time No. 1 picks are Notre Dame, USC and Oklahoma each with five.
This marks the 25th time a quarterback has been taken first overall in the Common Draft era, more than double the instances of any other position. Burrow's 2020 Fantasy projection with the Bengals is quite optimistic.
8:34 PM ET: Chalk first two picks as the Washington Redskins rebuffed all trade offers and took Ohio State defensive end Chase Young at No. 2. He was a -2000 favorite at William Hill sportsbook both to go No. 2 and be picked by Washington (different props). The SportsLine Projection Model has the Redskins going from 5.2 wins to 6.2 by adding Young.
8:38 PM ET: Run on Buckeyes as the Detroit Lions take Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah at No. 3. The SportsLine Projection Model has Detroit rising from 6.5 wins to 7.4 in 2020 by adding Okudah.
8:40 PM ET: First offensive lineman is chosen as Georgia's Andrew Thomas goes to the New York Giants. That's going to be a big win for bettors as Thomas had an Over-Under draft position of 10, and 84 percent of all money wagered on that prop was on the Under. Thomas was also +200 to be the first offensive lineman chosen. The Model bumps the Giants from 6.2 wins to 6.4.
8:55 PM ET: Miami takes Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5 overall -- so much for all those pre-draft rumors the Fins were souring on the lefty. The SportsLine Projection model raises Miami's 2020 win total from 5.4 to 5.9 with this pick. Here is Tua's 2020 Fantasy projection.
9:03 PM ET: The Los Angeles Chargers were expected to take a quarterback at No. 6 overall and grabbed Oregon's Justin Herbert. The SportsLine Projection Model only raises the Chargers from 8.0 wins to 8.1 this year because they have a solid starting QB in Tyrod Taylor. How will Herbert fare Fantasy-wise in 2020?
9:11 PM ET: It was no secret that Carolina was going to focus on defense with the No. 7 overall pick, and the Panthers took Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown. The Model boosts the Cats from 5.6 to 6.5 wins. Brown had an Over-Under draft position of 8.5, with the slight majority lean on the Under.
9:15 PM ET: Clemson do everything linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons goes No. 8 to the Arizona Cardinals. Simmons was the most-wagered defensive player at William Hill for this draft. The Cards jump from 6.9 to 7.7 wins with Simmons via the SportsLine Projection Model. Simmons was the most-wagered single defensive player at William Hill. The Cardinals were +2500 long shots to land him! The book was a small loser on the Over/Under Simmons draft position of 6.5 as the public leaned over.
9:23 PM ET: Florida cornerback CJ Henderson will only have to travel about 70 miles from Gainesville to his new NFL home as he was picked No. 9 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Henderson raises the Jags from 4.2 wins to 5.0 via the Model. Henderson had an Over-Under draft position of 14.5 and the Under took heavy action so that's big win for bettors. Jacksonville goes form 4.2 wins to 5.0 (still fewest in NFL) via the Model.
9:27 PM ET: Cleveland got some help up front for Baker Mayfield with Alabama offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. at No. 10 overall. Wills had an Over-Under draft spot of 8.5 and was yes-only at +140 to be picked in the Top 5 so that would be a loss. The Browns go from 7.3 wins to 7.7 with Wills via the Model.
9:36 PM ET: Most draft experts thought the Jets would go receiver at No. 11 overall, but they chose Louisville offensive tackle Mekhi Becton. He had an Over-Under draft position of 9.5, with the Over just crushed by bettors so that will be a loss for the book.
9:40 PM ET: The first receiver is off the board as the Las Vegas Raiders' first-ever selection is Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs at No. 12 overall. He was a +400 third-favorite to be the first wideout taken. The Model boosts the Raiders from 6.0 to 6.2 wins. How does Ruggs look for Fantasy football in 2020?
9:52 PM ET: The first trade of the draft! Tampa Bay sent picks No. 14 overall and No. 117 to San Francisco for the Niners' No. 13 pick and their last seventh-rounder. The Bucs got some protection for Tom Brady in Iowa offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs with that 13th pick. He had an Over-Under draft position of 8.5. The Model projects the Bucs from 8.3 wins to 8.9.
9:59 PM ET: Having moved down one spot, the Niners at No. 14 select South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw -- many expected the Niners to grab a receiver. Kinlaw had an Over-Under draft spot of 13.5 and the fact he went 14th instead of 13th was a loss for the book as the lean was on Over. Kinlaw raises the Niners from 10.7 wins to 10.9.
10:05 PM ET: Denver is the beneficiary of a slide by Alabama receiver Jerry Jeudy as the Broncos snag him at No. 15. Jeudy had an Over-Under draft position of 12.5 and Denver was +600 to pick him. The Model doesn't see Jeudy as a huge factor, only raising the Broncos from 7.7 to 7.8 wins. How about his Fantasy impact?
10:12 PM ET: Rumors were the Falcons wanted to trade up from No. 16 to get one of the drafts top two cornerbacks, Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson. Atlanta stayed put and grabbed Clemson cornerback AJ Terrell. He moves the Falcons from 6.4 wins to 6.8.
10:19 PM ET: Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb was the top-rated receiver on the CBS Big Board but was the third to be drafted on Thursday, going No. 17 to Dallas. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and Lamb -- that group could do some Fantasy damage. Lamb had an Over-Under draft position of 12.5. He boosts the Cowboys from 9.1 wins to 9.3. William Hill has Dallas at 9.5 wins.
10:28 PM ET: Miami is the first team to pick twice in Round 1, and the Fins select Southern Cal offensive tackle Austin Jackson at No. 18 overall to help protect Tua. Jackson was -120 to be a first-round pick and even money to not. Jackson has a minimal effect on Miami's win total from the Model.
10:32 PM ET: The Las Vegas Raiders use the 19th pick (from Bears via Khalil Mack trade) on Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette. He was ranked as just the 64th overall player on the CBS Sports Big Board. Arnette bumped the Raiders from 6.2 wins to 6.4.
10:41 PM ET: Jacksonville went defense at No. 9 overall and again at No. 20 with LSU pass-rusher K'Lavon Chaisson. He was given and Over-Under draft spot of 16.5. Chaisson moves the Jags from 5.0 wins to 5.1.
10:48 PM ET: Philadelphia's biggest need was considered to be receiver, and the Eagles chose Baylor wideout Jalen Reagor at No. 21. He was a +120 underdog to be picked before Clemson's Tee Higgins (-140) but did. What does Reagor bring from a Fantasy perspective. He takes Philly from around 8.8 wins to 9.0.
10:55 PM ET: Minnesota got the No. 22 pick from Buffalo in the Stefon Diggs trade and used it on LSU receiver Justin Jefferson. That was a win for the sportsbook as Jefferson was given an Over-Under draft position of 19.5 and took a HUGE lean on the Under. The Model has Jefferson shifting the Vikings from 9.1 to 9.3 wins. How about his Fantasy impact?
11:00 PM ET: The No. 23 pick belonged to New England, but the Pats traded it to the Chargers for second- and third-round picks. L.A. used No. 23 on Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray. He had an Over-Under draft spot of 21.5 with heavy action on the Under. Murray moves the Bolts from 8.0 wins to 8.1.
11:10 PM ET: New Orleans beefed up the offensive line at No. 24 overall with Michigan center Cesar Ruiz. He was a +110 underdog to be a Round 1 pick. Ruiz had minimal effect on the Saints' win total.
11:15 PM ET: This No. 25 pick belonged to the Vikings, but San Francisco acquired it for picks 31, 117 and 176. The Niners took Arizona State wideout Brandon Aiyuk. He was a +110 underdog to be picked in Round 1. Aiyuk bumps the Niners from 10.7 to 10.9 wins. Here is Aiyuk's projected Fantasy impact.
11:25 PM ET: Miami held the No. 26 pick but traded it to Green Bay for the No. 30 overall pick and a fourth-rounder. The Packers selected Utah State quarterback Jordan Love. Interesting! Love clearly won't be playing this season so the Model hasn't changed Green Bay's win total. Love surely won't have any Fantasy impact in 2020.
11:35 PM ET: Seattle chose Texas Tech linebacker Jordyn Brooks with the No. 27 pick. He was ranked just No. 139 on the CBS Sports Big Board. Brooks moved the Seahawks from 8.0 wins to 8.2.
11:42 PM ET: At No. 28, the Baltimore Ravens may have gotten a steal with LSU linebacker Patrick Queen. He had an Over-Under draft spot of 24.5 with the Under a -120 favorite and heavily bet. The Model bumped Baltimore only from 11.5 to 11.6 wins.
11:50 PM ET: The Tennessee Titans at No. 29 got someone to help open running lanes for Derrick Henry by selecting Georgia offensive lineman Isaiah Wilson. He was ranked No. 59 on the CBS Big Board and had minimal impact on the Titans' 2020 win total.
11:58 PM ET: Miami traded down to No. 30 with the Packers from No. 26, and the Fins selected Auburn cornerback Noah Igbinoghene 30th. He was a +175 underdog to be a first-round pick and moved the Dolphins from 5.9 wins to 6.1 via the Model.
12:03 PM ET: Minnesota picked 31st after trading down with San Francisco, and the Vikings chose TCU cornerback Jeff Gladney. He was given an Over-Under draft position of 47.5 with the Under taking massive action so that's a big win for bettors. Gladney moved the Vikes from 9.3 wins to 9.4.
12:10 PM ET: As if Super Bowl champion Kansas City needed more offensive help, it drafted what was considered the best pass-catching running back in the draft at No. 32 in LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- the only running back taken in Round 1. Edwards-Helaire was +500 to be the first back selected. He bumps the Chiefs from 11.7 wins to 11.8 via the Model. What will Edwards-Helaire contribute in Fantasy football?
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PRE-DRAFT NOTES:
Not only are bettors focusing on props, NFL futures on win totals, Super Bowl odds, MVP odds and Rookie of the Year odds will be rapidly changing during and shortly after the draft. We'll have all the latest updates as those odds and projections begin to shift.
We've been previewing the draft for weeks in our NFL news and season-long Fantasy football hub. Here are some of the highlights for your pre-draft reading:
Will there be a big trade during the draft? SportsLine's handicappers name the favorites to acquire Leonard Fournette and O.J. Howard. Tampa Bay's deal for Rob Gronkowski could speed up a Howard trade.
Will the Patriots replace Tom Brady with a first-round QB on Thursday? Odds are against that.
1. Cincinnati
2. Washington
3. Detroit
4. NY Giants
5. Miami
6. LA Chargers
7. Carolina
8. Arizona
9. Jacksonville
10. Cleveland
11. NY Jets
12. Las Vegas
13. San Francisco f/IND
14. Tampa Bay
15. Denver
16. Atlanta
17. Dallas
18. Miami f/PIT
19. Las Vegas f/CHI
20. Jacksonville f/LAR
21. Philadelphia
22. Minnesota f/BUF
23. New England
24. New Orleans
25. Minnesota
26. Miami f/HOU
27. Seattle
28. Baltimore
29. Tennessee
30. Green Bay
31. San Francisco
32. Kansas City
Biggest NFL draft prop bets at William Hill
Biggest potential payouts on draft prop bets at William Hill
Most popular draft prop bets at William Hill
There's a decent chance no running back is picked in Round 1 on Thursday, and it likely will be Georgia's D'Andre Swift if it happens.
The Redskins want to trade Pro Bowl offensive tackle Trent Williams. Perhaps to Cleveland?
Atlanta reportedly is looking to move up in Round 1 and targeting one of two cornerbacks.
ESPN draft expert Todd McShay is recovering from coronavirus and will not be able to participate in his network's coverage.
Bettors at William Hill believe LSU WR Justin Jefferson will go sooner than oddsmakers think.
On this date in 1989: Four future Hall of Famers among Top 5 draft picks ... but Packers blew it at No. 2.
Updated NFL Over-Under win total best bets from SportsLine Projection Model.
Where will Tua Tagovailoa go? SportsLine NFL expert RJ White believes he knows.
Jerry Jones drafting all by himself? That could be interesting.
Are Jaguars trying to trade up to No. 3 with Lions for their choice between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert? Rumor is gaining steam.