NFL Draft rumors the week of the event should largely be ignored because they are mostly smokescreens, which was made very clear in the wake of the Miami Dolphins selecting Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5 overall Thursday in the
In the past few days leading up to Round 1, the hubbub surrounding the Dolphins at No. 5 was they were souring on Tagovailoa and would take Oregon's Justin Herbert there. Or that they would trade up to No. 3 with Detroit and take an offensive tackle, worrying about a quarterback later in the first round. There was also talk Tua could slide out of the Top 10 with the Chargers also not enamored with him at No. 6 (they took Herbert).
At William Hill sportsbook, the two most popular NFL Draft props were on Tagovailoa, which were which team drafted him -- with Miami a -150 favorite -- and an Over-Under draft position of 3.5, with the Over a huge -360 favorite. A total of 23 percent of all money wagered on the which team would take Tua prop was on the Dolphins (most of any club) and 15 percent of all tickets sold (third behind the Chargers at 20 percent and Patriots at 16).
Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill US Director of Trading, said this Thursday night: "Tua was about a break even for us though he had the largest handle and number of tickets of any player by far."
Tagovailoa is the first Nick Saban-coached quarterback ever selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and it was the only non-specialist position from which that Saban hadn't had a first-round pick from entering this season. Of course, Saban once coached the Dolphins.
The SportsLine Projection model raises Miami's 2020 win total from 5.4 to 5.9 with this pick. William Hill sportsbook gives the Fins a win total of 6. SportsLine fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs projects Tua to make 12 starts this year for Miami and finish with 2,876 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and six picks while rushing for 199 yards and a TD.
Which teams sail past their projected win totals? What is the SportsLine model's stunning Packers prediction? And how many wins will every NFL team have this season? ... See every projected win total, including the shocking prediction for the Packers, all from an uncanny computer model that crushed its NFL win total picks last year!
