152nd Belmont Stakes: Two major trends working against heavy favorite Tiz the Law

The 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes is Saturday from Belmont Park in New York, and for the first time in the history of horse racing's Triple Crown the Belmont will be first on the schedule of the trio instead of last. The coronavirus forced the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes to the fall and pushed back the Belmont from its original June 6 start date. Tiz the Law is the even-money (+100) favorite on the William Hill sportsbook moneyline odds, but two clear-cut trends hint that the 3-year-old colt will not win.

The Belmont Stakes is the oldest of the Triple Crown faces as it debuted in 1867 and it usually is the longest of the three at 1½ miles, but because of the unique scheduling this year it was shortened to 1 1/8 miles. Thus, it will be shorter than both the Kentucky Derby (1¼ miles) and Preakness (1 3/16) for one bizarre year.

With fellow top contenders Charlatan, Nadal and Maxfield all pulling out of this race injured (Nadal sadly has been retired), Tiz the Law should be the huge favorite. He has four wins in five career races, including two Grade I events in the Florida Derby and Champagne Stakes. No other horse in the has shorter than +500 moneyline odds at William Hill sportsbook. Tiz the Law starts from Post 8, which is less than ideal in the 10-horse field.

However, Tiz the Law was born in New York and no horse from there has won the Belmont Stakes since Forester in 1882. Only three New York horses have overall. In 2003, New York-bred Funny Cide was going for the Triple Crown at the Belmont but finished third. Funny Cide's trainer? Barclay Tagg. He has never saddled a Belmont winner. Neither has jockey Manny Franco.

Meanwhile, just three post-time betting favorites have won the Belmont in the past 15 years. They were Justify (2018), American Pharoah (2015) and Afleet Alex (2005). Those first two completed the Triple Crown.

What Tiz the Law does have working for him – other than a fairly watered-down field -- is being the grandson of Tapit, who sired three Belmont winners in Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit.

SportsLine horse racing expert Jody Demling has nailed the winners of five straight races. Check out his coveted picks for the 2020 Belmont Stakes.