The loss of Kirill Kaprizov stings for Minnesota. His absence is why the lowly Coyotes are actually winning this game in 56% of my simulations. Arizona, for all its struggles, has a winning record at home. There's a ton of value to be had in the moneyline here given the plus odds. If you're not fully sold on the Coyotes winning outright, the model also has them covering in 79% of its simulations.