Defense tends to take the day off in Cup matches for third place. Before the 2-0 result in 2018, teams combined for at least three scores in 10 consecutive games for the bronze. The average during the stretch was 4.1 goals. Morocco's involvement has tamped down the odds, given its stout defense. But with little at stake in a made-for-TV match, teams become more free-flowing, with players eager to head home by closing out business with a goal.

This one comes down to motivation. Croatia can’t top last season’s runner-up finish, while the Atlas Lions can fully cement their place in World Cup history. Injuries have been catching up to Morocco, but they still haven’t been letting shots near their net. They have allowed 12 on target in six matches, and their approach should work well against a Croatia team that lacks firepower. The Checkered Ones also looked completely gassed against Argentina. The question to me is if Morocco can get it done in regulation. I think they can, so I like this better than +0.5 at -160. I think we might see more goals here than expected, so I’m staying away from the total.