Argentina might avoid looking at a world map before this matchup. Croatia hails from Europe, the continent whose World Cup teams the Argentines have led just once after regulation time in the last 14 knockout outings at the World Cup. With fullbacks Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna suspended from yellow card accumulation, the Argentine defense is vulnerable, prone to allowing a goal. Croatia's feisty midfield will harass Messi, making it tough for the star to do his goal-scoring thing. Argentina holds the edge in talent, but the veteran Croats can reprise their advancement to the 2018 Cup finals.

The Checkered Ones simply won’t be defeated in regulation in a knockout match, and they have risen to every challenge. Sure, if Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku and Brazil’s constellation of stars could finish their chances, the Croats would already be home. But goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic has been one of the tournament’s best players, and the wily veterans of Croatia just know how to win. Oddly enough, the pressure will be greater on Lionel Messi and Argentina than Luka Modric and the 2018 runners-up. Croatia defeated the Argentines 3-0 in Russia in 2018, and while that is unlikely to happen here, getting this at -105 is good value. I’d probably play it to -120. I think Argentina win on penalties, but Croatia vs. Morocco in the final wouldn’t shock me.