Morocco is for real on defense. If not for an own goal, its World Cup results would include nothing but zeroes for opponents. The trend extends back awhile. All but one of the Moroccans' last nine outings have produced two or fewer goals. Portugal, for all its firepower, is stout, too, on defense. Switzerland was ill-prepared to defend Ronaldo's replacement, Ramos, who managed a hat trick plus an assist. Morocco can game-plan to slow down the wunderkind. The underdogs surely will play with a 1-0 or 0-0 finish in mind.

This Morocco team is legit, and their relentlessness in getting after the ball is going to frustrate Portugal. Spain managed one shot on target – out of 13 overall attempts – in Tuesday’s match. The Atlas Lions just clog all avenues to the goal. I expect Portugal to win, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Morocco steal another one. Either way, Portugal won’t be scoring six goals, and they’ll probably need extra time (or even penalties) to get through. It's decent value at -140 and would be on it to -160.