This feels like a tight gritty World Cup Final …

The third place match always comes down to motivation, and it’s hard to see England bouncing back after such a gut wrenching loss to Argentina. Their midfield is also banged up. Declan Rice may not play, Elliot Anderson has logged a ton of minutes and could be rested, Bukayo Saka is nursing an injury, and Harry Kane has played a heavy workload all year, so don’t be surprised if he’s limited or sits. On the other side, you know Kylian Mbappé will be chasing the Golden Boot, so he’ll be motivated to play. If this turns into a battle of depth, France has the edge, especially with Mbappé leading the way.

This match feels like one where we’ll be reaching for an energy drink by halftime. Argentina scored early against Switzerland and completely drained the life out of that match. England weren’t much better, generating less than 0.5 expected goals over 90 minutes. Both teams are stronger defensively than the market gives them credit for, and neither side is likely to take unnecessary risks. This has all the makings of a tight, tactical battle that finishes 1-1. If either team trails late, they’ll do everything possible to force extra time. The draw is the only way I can play this match.

I was shocked to see France priced at -150 for draw no bet market. I have a hard time believing Spain beat them in regulation. If Spain advance, I think it comes through extra time or penalties. France’s attack, led by Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé, is one of the best in the tournament. Spain have conceded just once, but Belgium still created several dangerous moments against them. I have also been underwhelmed by Spain’s attack, while Lamine Yamal has struggled to consistently create for others. France have already survived tougher tests, and this will be Spain’s most difficult match yet. At this price, France draw no bet is the play.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has cashed in every Norway match this tournament, and it’s easy to see why. Norway fully embraces an attacking style behind Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, giving them one of Europe’s most dangerous offenses. England can match that firepower with Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and a loaded attack of their own. The concern is at the other end of the pitch. England have conceded three goals across their last two matches and were fortunate not to allow more. I don’t fully trust either defense, but I have complete confidence in both attacks creating chances. With this much quality going forward, the over is my favorite play.

There hasn’t been a single match where I’ve walked away overly impressed by Belgium. Even in their domination of the United States, a lot of those goals came from U.S. mistakes rather than Belgium completely breaking them down. Spain, on the other hand, have yet to concede in this tournament and have looked excellent while doing it. I have a hard time believing Belgium’s back line can contain Lamine Yamal and this Spanish attack. If Spain get rolling early, they have every chance to run riot over Belgium.

This is a tricky game to bet because I could make a case for either side, but deep down I believe this French team is too much for Morocco. We just watched Morocco give up a ton of pressure against Canada, and it was honestly baffling that Canada didn’t score early and often in that match. If Morocco come in with that same game plan here, France have every chance to blow the doors open. With Mbappé, Olise and Dembélé leading the attack, there is just too much pace, creativity and finishing quality. I think there’s value on France -1.

This feels like a really telling game for both federations. Belgium are at the tail end of their Golden Generation, a group that somehow went trophyless through that run, while the United States are starting to see one of their best generations come to fruition. Neither side will be willing to give an inch, and while the draw feels live, I have to believe the total is the best way to go. If you bet the over, the result doesn’t matter. Go back to when these two teams played in March. It was 5-2 Belgium, and while the United States had their moments, Belgium’s attack eventually prevailed. Both teams have fluid attacks, and both teams still have question marks defensively. Over is the play

I’m betting the over here and I’m not too afraid to do it. I originally liked both teams to score, but that number has moved too far, and I have a hard time believing we don’t see three goals in this match. Both teams to score has hit in 10 of the last 11 Norway matches, and that makes sense. This is a team with a dynamite attack led by Erling Haaland and a midfield that can back it up. The issue is they prioritize attacking over defending. On the other side, Brazil have Vini Jr who can change a match with one moment, but they’ve had defensive issues as well. I see 2-1 either way, with 3-0 also possible.

Once again, I’m left impressed with this Morocco team. They play with a tenacity and physicality that can be suffocating, but what’s really exciting is how dynamic the attack looks. That’s something they’ve missed over the last few years. Canada have made a great run, but the turnovers worry me, especially the ones that come from dribble attempts and sloppy touches. They need to move the ball quicker and avoid getting stuck in possession. If they think Morocco are going to give them space to operate, they’re mistaken. Morocco are the better team on paper, and I think that wins out.

Cape Verde have had a great tournament, but unfortunately, they now run into the best team in the world. I have a hard time seeing them continue to pick up points when they’ve only scored two goals this World Cup and conceded twice to an underwhelming Uruguay side. At the bare minimum, I think Argentina score two and keep a clean sheet, which gives us value on the -2 line. But my correct score prediction is closer to 3-0 than 2-0.

I think there’s going to be some buyback on this price, but the betting splits suggest the United States goal handicap is getting a little overvalued with 97% of the money on it. This line has been pushed all the way to -1.5, and while I’ll be the most patriotic person at the bar, I don’t think this is easy sledding. Bosnia and Herzegovina have gone unbeaten in 10 of their last 11, with the lone loss coming against a strong Switzerland side. The United States still lack the defensive intensity to keep a clean sheet over 90 minutes if Bosnia are having their day. This feels more like a 2-1 type of match, which gives value against the public money.

Are we overthinking this match? DR Congo have had a great tournament and it’s been an inspiring run, but I still think this line should be bigger than -1.5. Even if England start slow, the talent gap is massive. Harry Kane, Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham and Elliot Anderson have been excellent, and then England can bring Bukayo Saka, Ollie Watkins and Marcus Rashford off the bench. Their attacking depth is ridiculous. Defensively, England are still one of the best teams in the world, and it would take a massive effort for DR Congo to get a result here. If England go ahead, the match gets stretched, which only creates more chances. I’m not overthinking it. Give me England on the goal handicap.

I’m backing the over in this match, even if there is some hesitation because Belgium have not been great. Both sides have really struggled defensively, and that opens the door for goals. Senegal’s defense is not as strong as it has been in years past, but their attack, led by Ismaila Sarr, is still dangerous. They also showed their depth last match with Pape Gueye coming off the bench and scoring a brace. Belgium can still win one-on-one battles in attack, and when Romelu Lukaku is on the pitch, they have a true target man. Kevin De Bruyne is drinking from the fountain of youth this tournament, and I expect him to keep dazzling. It’s the over for me.

I’m taking France on the goal line today because I firmly believe they control how much they want to win by. We’ve seen the matador defense from this Swedish national team, and France have the ability to score three or four goals if they want. Sweden have been disjointed, easy to pass through, and I think the likes of Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé can break them down. If France don’t start slow, I think you can even play the alt lines at -2.5 and -3.5 because 4-0 a possible.

I’m taking Brazil moneyline here. This is not disrespect to Japan, but Brazil have the clear coaching and talent advantage. Carlo Ancelotti on the touchline is massive, and so is the attacking quality of players like Vini Jr. and Matheus Cunha. Japan are well drilled and tactically sharp, but they will have to test their depth with key players missing. They’ve gotten real contributions from players like Ito and Ueda, but I don’t think that holds up as the tournament gets deeper. Brazil are starting to look better every match, and this feels like the spot where Japan finally run into a ceiling. Japan are a dangerous side, but I think Brazil win this in regulation.