Brady's Picks (1 Live)
Patriots' schedule has been a sore spot for their supporters all season but there is no denying, they played hardly any good teams. They were 2-2 vs playoff teams, splitting with the Bills and also splitting with the Panthers and Steelers, the two worst teams in the tournament. Chargers were 3-2 vs playoff teams (not counting Week 18) and had to face Denver, Philly, Steelers, Jaguars, and Texans. LAC also has the better point differential vs common opponents. They have an excellent formula for playoff football: a rushing attack, a pass rush, and an excellent defense. When I crunch my numbers, I come up with LAC as a 1-point favorite. I'll gladly take anything greater than a field goal and they just might win outright.
When this game first materialized, the immediate reactions were, "I'm hammering the OVER." That had me immediately considering the UNDER. We know SF's defense can be a problem but Robert Salah has them playing above their heads, with a great deal of energy. Let's not forget, they held Seattle to 13-points last week and forced four field goal attempts. Seattle's offense ranks much higher than Philadelphia's and the defense of Philly is very good. It feels like 49ers vs Eagles would mean points but the fact that the line opened at 46 says a lot - and it has since been bet down. Some wind is expected and note that since 2004, the UNDER is 49-23 (68%) in Wild Card games played outdoors.
Looking at these two teams on the surface, Bills vs Jaguars seems to scream points - thus, I want to go the other direction. I was able to play UNDER 52 here and I show that is still readily available. It is very possible that this number will go even higher if you wait until Sunday as I believe the public majority will have that same initial perception I refer to and play the OVER accordingly. The running game should be featured heavily in this contest - for both teams. Buffalo's defense is vulnerable against the run and Buffalo's offense is excellent utilizing the run. Rushing the football takes time off the clock. The running game plus public perception has me staying UNDER the total.
Ravens got steamed on Friday afternoon but I prefer to go against the move. Neither team is very good and I believe making Baltimore a 4.5-point road favorite is too high. The Ravens were actually better with Lamar Jackson not in the game last week when they leaned on Derrick Henry. Will Henry get the bulk of the action again with Lamar back? He sat out nearly the entire 4th quarter in a loss to the Patriots. I like Mike Tomlin as a home underdog in prime time and he has historically bounced back after a poor performance. Tomlin is 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS when the Steelers score fewer than 10-points in their previous game, including 7-1-1 ATS when their record is above .500
Rams have dropped two straight, not a way anyone wants to enter the postseason. Sean McVay will have his team ready to right the ship, using the Cardinals as their playoff-prep tackling dummy. Removing any situational factors, my numbers have the Rams by 16-points. Arizona is arguably the most injured team in the league. Forget about the incredibly wide gap in talent between these two teams, the discrepancy in health alone might be worth 16 points. Some might argue that how the Rams approach this game depends on what the 49'ers do on Saturday. I don't necessarily agree. McVay wants to reestablish some positive momentum for this team heading into the postseason. I believe it is a one-way street this Sunday at SoFi.
There are quite a few unknowns in Week 18 but I believe we do know that even with the season essentially finished, Dan Campbell will still come with everything he has. Unfortunately, everything he has is not a lot with all of the injuries but still, I believe this will be 100% effort out of Campbell's squad. Just by the numbers, the Lions are the better team. Again, it is about health and if they have enough to overcome the holes on defense. All the pressure in on Chicago - to win and secure the #2 seed. Meanwhile, Detroit can let it fly with no pressure whatsoever. If the Lions don't turn the ball over, they'll keep it close and possibly win it outright.
Tampa Bay is a disjointed product. Many of their star players haven't even been on the field for even half a season. They found ways to have success without them and now with some of them back, integrating them back into the flow has only caused more chaos. Let's not forget, when they were winning, early in the season, it was in minor miracle fashion, pulling games out in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. Carolina is healthier and can rush the football. That is a good formula on a sloppy, wet field in Florida for Week 18. Grab the full 3 points but I feel it won't be needed as the Panthers win the game outright.
The Chicago Bears do not have a very good defense. They rank as one of worst in the league in yards per pass given up and in yards per carry surrendered. They were extremely successful for most of the season because of turnovers. As of late, against good teams, Steelers, Eagles, and Packers twice, their turnover margin has leveled off. Brock Purdy has thrown 9 TD's and only 1 interception in his last 3 games. If Chicago can't force turnovers, the 49'ers offense ought to be able to pick them apart. The Bears will likely have some success on offense too but not enough to win the game or stay within a field goal in my opinion. Lay the 3 before it goes to 3.5.
The whole country got to see the Colts defense get carved up by the 49'ers on Monday. This, coupled with the biggest win of the season for Jacksonville, beating the Broncos at Mile High, had this line open at an inflated number of 7. It has since come down to as low as 5.5 and may go lower. I love getting 6 and would not want to settle for much less. This is a division game. I expect a tighter result than by a touchdown. Final home game for Indy and I believe we get an all-out effort against their division nemesis. Stock at rock bottom for the Colts and sky high on the Jags, I'll take the division home dog with the points.
Bengals haven't played a game with temperatures above 50-degrees since Week 8. Last two games have been played in the snow. With their season finished and questions surrounding Joe Burrow, do you think this team will enjoy 80-degree weather in Miami? You bet they will. In my mind, this is anything but a business trip for the Cincinnati Bengals. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have completely turned things around, winning four of their last five games. Players were put on alert with the benching of Tua and I believe that refocuses this team once again. Devon Achane should have a field day rushing the football against the worst run defense in the game. I'm not worried about who plays QB for Miami. I believe they win outright.
It feels as if the betting majority has completely given up on the Chiefs with them missing their star QB and missing the playoffs for the 1st time in 10 seasons. They have injuries, they have a backup quarterback, but they also have a ton of competitive pride and I don't believe Andy Reid will allow this team to no-show the way many seem to think they will - against one of the worst teams in football to boot. KC knows their star is injured and that everyone will have to raise their game. I believe this is a rally the troops effort here, showing the world that the team that has dominated the league for the last decade, should not be doubted.
Buffalo is back on a roll and the SuperBowl talk has resurfaced after last week's magical comeback win over New England. Next week, the Bills host the defending champion Eagles. Sandwiched in between is a road game versus the lowly Browns and a lofty point spread. I expect the Browns to play with effort at home after looking awful last week on the road. The number is inflated because of the Buffalo buzz and the stock being especially low on Cleveland. Bills have let down after big wins before and I see this as being another flat spot in the schedule. Browns defense will make this an ugly game in the windy, cold conditions. Bills defense will allow Cleveland to stay within the number.
I made this number 4.5 in favor of the Eagles. It opened as low as 5.5 in some shops and is currently up to 7. At popular sportsbooks Draftkings and BetMGM, the Eagles are one of the very most popular bets of the week as far as ticket count. Now we have a home underdog getting a full touchdown in a division game against a team that has been averaging less than 19 points per game over the last six weeks - and if you remove last week's 31-0 blanking of the Raiders, the Eagles are only averaging 16 points over the previous five games. Their weakness on defense is stopping the run and that is what Washington does best. Commanders may win this outright.
I am not alone when saying I was surprised to see Green Bay listed as a favorite. This Denver defense is nearly a polar opposite from last week's Chicago defense that Jordan Love was able to exploit. Not only did the Packers have that very emotional, arch rival matchup last week but they have it again next week in Chicago. This out of conference affair thrown in the middle will be very difficult, especially at altitude for a team that rarely ever travels to the Mile High city. Green Bay has covered the number only two times this season when on the road and out of division. That was against the Steelers defense and the Giants. This is a very different animal. Broncos win outright.