Thomas's Picks (4 Live)
I'm going to buy low on Northwestern returning home after two straight losses. I'm not high on Ohio State this season. They faced a soft home schedule then lost in their first road test against a bad Pitt team. Northwestern hasn't played a true home game since Nov. 10 and that's creating some value with this line. I think the wrong team is favored here. Take Northwestern as a dog or short favorite up to -2.
I like Mercer but South Dakota has faced the much tougher schedule. The Coyotes are also peaking at the right time with four straight wins over quality opponents North Dakota, South Dakota State, Sothern Illinois and Drake. I expect this to be a tight game throughout and made Mercer closer to -4.5. I think the Yotes stay within this number.
I'm jumping on Purdue early at -4.5 Saturday. I like the matchup at home for the Boilermakers. Iowa State is playing its first true road game this season and I worry about their metrics guarding the perimeter, despite facing a soft home schedule so far this year. The Cyclones do have a really good win over St. John's but playing on a neutral court with a few hundred fans and going on the road in front of a raucous crowd isn't the same thing. I think the Boilermakers will make more perimeter shots, avoid turnovers and I give them an edge on the offensive boards. The line may move against me but I'm fine with 4.5. Bet up to 5.5.
Half Unit Play. I'm going to take a shot here with UC Davis getting 9.5 points. I have these teams rated closer than the large spread indicates. Both teams have played well the two times they stepped up in class. Hawaii has close losses to Arizona State and Oregon, while UC Davis upset Nevada and played tough at Colorado. I think the Rainbow Warriors' metrics are a bit overrated right now thanks to a soft schedule. Another factor could be turnovers. Hawaii's biggest weakness is turnovers and UC Davis pressures the ball at an above average rate. Ten of the last 13 games between these two have been decided by eight points or less. I'll take the 9.5 for a half unit. Play to 8.5.
Half Unit Play. I like this spot for Notre Dame. Missouri has played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far with seven home games and a lone road game at Howard. The Tigers have faced just one team ranked in KenPom’s Top 230 and that was 4-4 Minnesota. I like the Irish this season and I thought they played pretty well in losses to Ohio State, Houston and Kansas away from home. I think this is a good matchup for Notre Dame facing a Missouri squad playing its first tough opponent of the season on the road. I'm making ND +1.5 a half unit play. If the line moves to 2.5 I'll add another half unit.
George Mason is the best mid-major team I’ve seen and I love this matchup. Head coach Tony Skinn has done a great job luring power conference talent to George Mason. The Patriots have a massive edge defensively in this game. Cornell has scored at least 86 points in six of seven games. However, that was against bad competition. What stands out to me is the one game where they faced a competent defense versus Illinois State. The Redbirds held Cornell to 65 points and 19.4% from three-point range. The Big Red live and die by the three-pointer and will face a Patriots’ defense holding opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc. I’ll back George Mason to roll at home. Bet up to -12.5.
One thing I like to do after a few games is fade bad defenses on the road. Kansas State is rolling offensively but the Wildcats have allowed an average of 85.5 points in their last four games. That concerns me with Kansas State playing its first true toad game at Indiana. The Hoosiers haven't played anyone yet but I like the roster Darian DeVries has assembled. Indiana should be able to score at will near the basket and I give them a big defensive edge in this matchup. I'll lay the 8.5. Bet up to 9.5.
Jumping on this play for Monday early. I actually make Alabama the small favorite here. I'll take the 4.5 in a run and gun game that the Tide love to play. Bama has already beat St. John's and Illinois and were tied with Purdue late. Give me the 4.5 points at DK on the opener. Bet to +3.5.
I’m going to buy low on Southern Illinois here. The Salukis have lost two straight but they were on the road to North Dakota State by seven and Nevada in overtime. I think those losses are leading to value with this number. I have Delaware rated low this season. The Hens have already lost to Bucknell and D-II Wilmington University. Maybe my numbers are off early but I have Southern Illinois rated as a mid-tier MVC team and Delaware near the bottom of the CAA. I’ll lay the 6.5 on a neutral court. Bet to -7.5.
This matchup just screams points. The last 10 meetings between USC and Oregon have produced at least 54 points with eight going over 60. I think we will see another high-scoring game on Saturday. The issue USC faces is it struggles to stop the run. The Trojans are allowing close to 170 rushing yards in their last three games. When the Ducks are able to run the football, it sets up everything else they do offensively and lets quarterback Dante Moore make big plays down the field. If Oregon gets the running game going early on Saturday, USC’s defense is in for a long day. I expect Oregon’s offense to have one of its best performances of the season.
I'm going against the line movement here. I understand why Montana State got hit at -1.5 but now that the line is over a field goal, I think there is value on the Grizzlies. The Bobcats have the edge on defense but no one has really slowed down Montana's offense all season. The Griz have won the last two meetings at home and I think this game goes down the wire. I'll take the 3.5.