ANALYSIS: Inter are one of the most underrated teams in Europe while AC Milan have proven to be defensive cup specialists. The fact that they're fourth in Serie A has overshadowed the fact that they have the best expected goal difference in the league, better even than the Napoli side that clinched the Scudetto last week. Of course AC Milan eliminated that Napoli side in the quarterfinals, behind a strong defensive performance. In that matchup Milan benefitted from Napoli suffering from injuries and suspensions, while in this semifinal it's Milan anxiously awaiting the fitness report on their star, Rafael Leao. Inter are the better team, in better form and despite being "on the road" I expect them to win at San Siro.

ANALYSIS: Real Madrid are clear favorites, but Chelsea have some sneaky strength in midfield to beware of. Look, nobody is going to mistake Chelsea for a competent and put together team but they’re getting a big big price, and Real Madrid strength is itself fleeting, built on a history of improbably late second comebacks, that you don’t want to call luck, but probably aren’t repeatable. If Chelsea can pull off the upset it will be because Enzo Fernandez plays the ball relentlessly forward from midfield, and Chelsea’s struggling forwards finally put away a good chance. Also Madrid know they’ll be more than capable of going to London and getting a result in the second leg if they need it, so don’t be surprised if Chelsea nick a draw or even an unlikely win from a loose Madrid performance.

ANALYSIS: Napoli are one of the best teams in the world and AC Milan beat them 4-0 the last time they played, but I’m keeping the faith in this Napoli side despite their injury issues. The major struggle for Napoli is that they are without both Victor Osimhen and his backup, Giovanni Simeone in attack. But, while this sides attack has been basically unparalleled in Italy, their defense is just as much their calling card. Only second place Lazio with have conceded fewer goals than Napoli’s 21 and similarly Napoli’s expected goals conceded of 24.9. Milan has also been struggling with that Napoli win their only one in their past six matches, so Napoli should look to win a low-scoring affair.

ANALYSIS: Napoli are one of the top handful of teams in the world. Frankfurt, at their best, are one of the top five teams in Germany. Napoli’s goal difference per match puts them right between Bayern Munich and PSG as the fifth best side in Europe’s top five leagues. Frankfurt have the fifth best goal difference in the Bundesliga. On top of that Frankfurt are missing their best player in Randal Kolo Muani who has either scored or assisted on 21 out of Frankfurt’s 45 Bundesliga goals. He picked up a red card in the first leg. And Napoli are not the type of team to sit on a two goal lead, they just seem like they have too much fun scoring goals for each other.

ANALYSIS: Manchester City were the better side in the first leg against RB Leipzig, but they weren’t better by as much as you would expect them to be. That doesn’t mean that City are likely to lose the home leg against the German side, but it does mean that City continue to fall prey to the same habit of being overly conservative in the Champions League, prioritizing control of the game over scoring goals. Expect City to control the game, expect them to have most of the ball, expect Leipzig to have very few chances to score, but also expect City to patiently wait for one or two good chances to put the tie away. It’s the Pep Guardiola way.