Inter are one of the most underrated teams in Europe while AC Milan have proven to be defensive cup specialists. The fact that they're fourth in Serie A has overshadowed the fact that they have the best expected goal difference in the league, better even than the Napoli side that clinched the Scudetto last week. Of course AC Milan eliminated that Napoli side in the quarterfinals, behind a strong defensive performance. In that matchup Milan benefitted from Napoli suffering from injuries and suspensions, while in this semifinal it's Milan anxiously awaiting the fitness report on their star, Rafael Leao. Inter are the better team, in better form and despite being "on the road" I expect them to win at San Siro.

Real Madrid are clear favorites, but Chelsea have some sneaky strength in midfield to beware of. Look, nobody is going to mistake Chelsea for a competent and put together team but they’re getting a big big price, and Real Madrid strength is itself fleeting, built on a history of improbably late second comebacks, that you don’t want to call luck, but probably aren’t repeatable. If Chelsea can pull off the upset it will be because Enzo Fernandez plays the ball relentlessly forward from midfield, and Chelsea’s struggling forwards finally put away a good chance. Also Madrid know they’ll be more than capable of going to London and getting a result in the second leg if they need it, so don’t be surprised if Chelsea nick a draw or even an unlikely win from a loose Madrid performance.

Napoli are one of the best teams in the world and AC Milan beat them 4-0 the last time they played, but I’m keeping the faith in this Napoli side despite their injury issues. The major struggle for Napoli is that they are without both Victor Osimhen and his backup, Giovanni Simeone in attack. But, while this sides attack has been basically unparalleled in Italy, their defense is just as much their calling card. Only second place Lazio with have conceded fewer goals than Napoli’s 21 and similarly Napoli’s expected goals conceded of 24.9. Milan has also been struggling with that Napoli win their only one in their past six matches, so Napoli should look to win a low-scoring affair.

Napoli are one of the top handful of teams in the world. Frankfurt, at their best, are one of the top five teams in Germany. Napoli’s goal difference per match puts them right between Bayern Munich and PSG as the fifth best side in Europe’s top five leagues. Frankfurt have the fifth best goal difference in the Bundesliga. On top of that Frankfurt are missing their best player in Randal Kolo Muani who has either scored or assisted on 21 out of Frankfurt’s 45 Bundesliga goals. He picked up a red card in the first leg. And Napoli are not the type of team to sit on a two goal lead, they just seem like they have too much fun scoring goals for each other.

Manchester City were the better side in the first leg against RB Leipzig, but they weren’t better by as much as you would expect them to be. That doesn’t mean that City are likely to lose the home leg against the German side, but it does mean that City continue to fall prey to the same habit of being overly conservative in the Champions League, prioritizing control of the game over scoring goals. Expect City to control the game, expect them to have most of the ball, expect Leipzig to have very few chances to score, but also expect City to patiently wait for one or two good chances to put the tie away. It’s the Pep Guardiola way.

Without a doubt, Bayern hosting PSG is a battle of two of the heavyweights left in the competition, and while Bayern come in with a one goal lead, this is not a team that knows how to sit back and defend. Bayern cram attackers on the field, pour forward and look to bury you. PSG will be without Neymar, but with a healthy Kylian Mbappe from kickoff this leg, and Messi in fine form they should have plenty of threat on the counter. Bayern are in great shape to advance, but they'll look to extend their lead rather than sit on it, and PSG will have no reason to be cautious. So, with two teams with this much fire power, expect a bunch of sparks.

Chelsea come into the match needs two goals to advance, and on a 12 match streak of scoring a single goal or less. However, the Blues got off a season high 21 shots in the first leg against Dortmund and notched over 2.1 expected goals despite not finding the net. This is a side that has improved recently despite it not showing up in results yet. Dortmund on the other hand are just not a great defensive team. It's not only getting chances to Chelsea in their last meeting, but in the Bundesliga they've struggled against good teams, most recently conceding 2.4 xG against RB Leipzig last time out. Chelsea may not advance, but they'll win.

It's just too tempting to look at a good, organized defensive Switzerland side who probably can advance with just a draw and pick them to do just that. Based on various tiebreakers it would take Cameroon beating Brazil by two in the other Group G match for the Swiss to draw and go home. Given that Switzerland remain resolutely committed to organized and dogged defending, and doing just enough to win, and that they've got a history of doing just that, 0-0 and 1-1 scores just seem well over-represented in the possible outcomes from this match. Serbia need to win, but there's not a lot of evidence that they'll be able to crack a Swiss defense that just held Brazil at bay for over 80 minutes.

Canada may not have enough to win this match, but they're going to be an extremely difficult matchup for Belgium. This Belgian side is just not what they were, with their golden generation of talent inching towards the end of their careers. They still attack but their defensive line can't cover the gaps the players up the field leave them. And Canada are a team that know exactly what they're about. Jonathan David is the perfect striker to conduct a counterattack and Alphonso Davies can win matches all by himself, The major question is Davies' health. A 90 minutes fit Davies could lead Canada to a shock win, a 30 minutes fit version of the fullback might leave them coming up a little short.

We've already seen one example of an extremely lopsided match this tournament with England beating up on Iran 6-2. Argentina are better than England and Saudi Arabia are worse than Iran. Argentina may have to score all three goals themselves, but Lionel Messi and company are more than capable of doing that. Lionel Messi might be more than capable of doing that on his own. The major problem for underdogs in matches like this is if they concede at any point early on they're just sort of out of options and invariably attempts to get back into the match get exploited by the superior side. Depending on the price, longer odds and a higher over might also be tempting.

This is a good price given just how large the talent gap is between England and Iran in. England's well established history of playing their cards close to their chest and not taking chances on the way to low scoring victories precedes them, but this line underestimates their ability to physically dominate Iran at set pieces. Iran is the kind of underdog that can be dangerous against mistake prone teams. England are exactly the wrong type of favorite to get bothered by Iran’s talented attackers. Look for the Three Lions to physically dominate the match early, score from a set piece and then add another goal as Iran are forced to over-commit in attack against a defense that won’t give them any openings.

Group A is in significant flux after Senegal star Sadio Mane was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to injury. But Senegal's loss is Ecuador's gain and turns this match from a mostly ceremonial affair between two teams unlikely to advance into a must win for the South American club. Expect them to get it done. This team advanced in a stacked South American qualifying region with a goal difference of +8 and have some top level talent including Brighton midfielder Moises Caicedo. This very well may be a year of South American dominance at the World Cup, and I expect that to extend down beyond just Brazil and Argentina to Uruguay and Ecuador as well.