There's no better time to make my first college basketball pick on the site in 2024. I'll be at this game tonight cheering on my alma mater, Arizona, as they rematch against ASU. Ten days ago, the Wildcats won this matchup 105-60 in a historic romp. I have a strong feeling that this game tonight will be too close for comfort, and for the Sun Devils to keep it that way, they must slow the game down considerably. If they let Arizona get out in transition easily, the game likely will be out of hand quickly. Plus only one ASU home game has gone over this number all season, an overtime loss to Washington last week. Arizona 78, ASU 73.

San Francisco has allowed 40+ rushing yards to Josh Dobbs, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Carson Wentz. Of the other top running QBs they've faced, Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts did little on the ground. Mahomes is probably in the second tier of scramblers and has rushed five or more times in 6 of his last 11 games. He'll have his chances to make an impact on the ground against a stingy 49ers defense that likely will limit some of KC's downfield chances. I can see Mahomes topping 30 yards rushing in this game so there's some value here.

I like this number for Deebo's receiving yards alone, but just in case, we'll throw 3-6 rushing attempts in for good measure. Kansas City deploys a two-high defense approximately 3/4 of the time, and against that coverage, Samuel has a 35% first read share and 24% target share since November. If you want to have more fun, a +2500 ticket on Samuel to win MVP is absolutely worth a sprinkle.

Samuel accounted for 12 touchdowns this year, but I didn't realize at first glance that five of them came on the ground. If the 49ers are to win, as I predict, Samuel will likely have to play a big role so a touchdown at plus-money odds makes sense to me.

Everyone seems to be on Kansas City in this game. What am I missing? Wasn’t San Francisco the best team in the league for a long stretch? Do people realize that no team has won back-to-back titles since the '03-'04 Patriots? I expect the San Francisco defense to make a few key plays in the second half and hold off a late Kansas City rally. Somehow, some way, Purdy beats Mahomes. 49ers 27, Chiefs 23.

In their last five games against No. 1 wide receivers, Detroit is averaging giving up 10 catches for 178 yards and a touchdown against each. Talk about passing funnels to the extreme! I expect Aiyuk to go nuclear on Sunday, also considering that he's topped 100+ yards in three of the last five full games he's played. I would even considering laddering this up to 125 at odds above +300.

Goff has thrown an interception in four of the five Detroit losses this season and San Francisco's stellar defense has forced at least one INT in eight of their last ten games. With Detroit likely trailing and having to chuck it on almost every play, at least one Goff turnover seems likely to happen even at these poor odds.

In Detroit's five defeats this season, Goff has thrown 35, 53, 44, 35, and 34 passes. With my prediction of San Francisco being ahead throughout the entirety of the second half, I would not be surprised to see the Lions QB throw it at least 40 times. Even when playing ahead last week, Goff had 43 attempts. He'll need some extra ice for that throwing arm after he airs it out often on Sunday afternoon/evening.

It's well-documented how poorly Detroit is playing against No. 1 wide receivers lately from a yardage perspective, but each of the last five weeks, those same receivers have also scored a touchdown. Even at chalky odds, look for Aiyuk to join the club on Sunday, especially with Deebo Samuel either very limited or out.

It's not as if Pacheco's receiving numbers have been all that great lately, but Baltimore has allowed enemy running backs to hit this over in 7 of their last 8 games (in fact, each has cleared 20+ yards). Last week, Devin Singletary caught five passes for 48 yards and with KC very likely trailing, I could see Pacheco getting similar volume from Patrick Mahomes.

I think it's fair to call Tucker the greatest of all-time among kickers and I have a strong feeling he'll play in his second Super Bowl in a few weeks. He has made multiple successful field goals in 7 of his last 10 games and on the season, he's 32 of 33 from inside 50 yards. The Chiefs have allowed multiple field goal attempts in 7 of their last 9 games. I think Tucker covers this line and more as the Ravens march on.

I enjoy picking field goal props, especially overs, but this one feels like the exception. Though Butker is an excellent kicker who has gone 12 of 12 in his last three games, Buffalo simply doesn't give up made field goals at a high rate. In their last 11 games, only twice has a kicker made two or more field goals. With high wind gusts likely in the forecast for Sunday, I'll fade Butker and stick with Kansas City touchdowns instead.

In their last four games, against No. 1 receivers Justin Jefferson (twice), CeeDee Lamb, and Puka Nacua, the Lions have surrendered a combined 41 catches for 781 yards and four touchdowns. Talk about U-G-L-Y stats for Detroit's secondary. I'm expecting Mike Evans to continue the fun and I would consider laddering his total above 100 yards in the event Tampa Bay is in chase mode (as is likely).

Dating back to Week 14, in five of Detroit's last six games, they have given up a touchdown to the opposing team's top wide receiver. I'll play the trend at plus-money again this week.

Unless the 49ers decide to abandon the run, this Purdy line simply seems too high. Purdy is under this number in 13 of 16 games because the passing volume isn't there. He's also thrown the ball 30 times or less in 13 games. With game flow likely in San Francisco's favor, expect the 49ers to lean on their rushing attack in the second half as they try to sit on a lead.