Jon's Picks (1 Live)
Lens' are continuing to battle as they attempt to do the impossible, win the league over PSG. The team is currently four points behind, and PSG still have UCL play which could cause them to falter. While the league is in PSG's hand to win or lose, Lens have to win out to stand a chance of lifting the trophy. Brest is not a good side and they are not in good form. This is the perfect chance for Lens to find some consistency and a big three points. They are the better side, and I expect them to win this one, most likely by more than one goal.
Monaco have been very up and down so far this season. The team had and incredibly slow start to the season and struggled to find the consistency in the final third that they needed. They have finally started, however, to turn things around. The team has now won their last six Ligue 1 matches straight, which included massive wins over Lens, Brest, Lyon and PSG. FLorian Balogun, Maghnes Akliouche and Aleksandr Golovin have been really picking up the heat, and will look to continue their heater against a good Marseille team, but a Marseille team that is struggling on the road.
Paris and Lorient were both clubs that were promoted back to Ligue 1 this season, and have both done a great job not only avoiding the relegation battle, but surviving against massive clubs in Ligue 1. A big reason both clubs has done well is their resilience and their ability to get a point off major clubs. Lorient have picked up 10 draws this season already this season, and the only team in the league who has as many as them, is Paris, who also have 10. Both clubs will finish middle of the league, and with how often it hits, I have to take a stab at this.
I don't have enough characters to go into full detail why I like this bet so much and why Lens are as mad as they are. Short summary is that Lens are currently one point off of PSG and are trying to win the league for the first time since the 97-98 season. They were supposed to play PSG on April 11th, and the league decided to move their match to May 13, the help PSG rest against Liverpool in UCL play. This ruling is unfair, and hurts Lens chances of winning as PSG get to rest rather than play them. Lens manager, fans, and players have made it very clear they're upset, and I expect them to play some scary, pissed off footy.
WE can all agree that on paper PSG are the MUCH better club and should win this one easy peasy. Unfortunately, betting can never be that easy, and I think I found us a sneakily good line in this matchup. PSG are the better team, but just a few days after this match, they'll have to host Liverpool in Champions League, which is a much more important matchup for the Parisians. I don't expect PSG to play their best men for 90 minutes against Toulouse, and will rest some of their big names, meaning this game stays much closer than people expect it to.
When these two teams played in the reverse fixture back in August, we saw one of the highest-scoring matches of the Ligue 1 season. PSG won on the road against Toulouse 6-3. Now, I don't think we're going to see nine goals in this match, but I will say that we should at least see 3-4 goals, and I'm shocked the over is remotely playable at 2.5 goals. PSG has hit over 2.5 goals in nine of their last 10 matches across all competitions, and while Toulouse isn't quite as goal friendly, they'll have to adjust and press to goals to beat a distracted PSG side.
There are currently a total of three teams in Ligue 1 who are averaging less than one goal scored per game. Nantes have scored 19 in 20 matches. Le Havre have scored 16 in 20 matches. Then we have Auxerre, who have a league low 14 goals scored in their 20 matches. This team has the worst attack in Ligue 1, and haven't scored in any of their last four league matches. All four of those matches saw them fail to score, lose, and hit the under. Auxerre unders should be an auto bet for the time being.
Oh hello exact same bet I make every single week! It's nice to see you again! Lorient continue to be disrespected by the books and I can't for the life of me figure out why. After beating Nantes 2-1 in the last matchday they've moved their unbeaten streak to 11 matches across all competitions. They'll be traveling to take on a Brest team who hasn't been great in the new year. Brest have just a single win in their last five, and I'll gladly take this spread once again.
We absolutely nailed Lens last week. We talked about how they were the better team and would be Le Havre, but it was going to be frustrating, cagey and low scoring. Lens dominated every possible stat, and won 1-0. This is a team fighting to beat PSG in Ligue 1, and to do that, you have to be methodical, and you have to be willing to slow things down. I see a similar game plan against a Rennes side who was just hosed by Monaco. Lens at home love a 1-0 victory.
Lens have been a nightmare for teams all season long, and even more so when they're playing in front of their fans at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Lens have played 10 matches at home and won nine of those. Their one loss came to Lyon in the first match of the season. They've been one of the most consistent sides in Europe, and know how to frustrate their opponents and make their time in Lens awful. They also don't need to blow teams out, as they've won their last two home matches, 1-0 each time. Expect an out of shape Rennes team to struggle here.
Lille are in some of the worst form we've seen in years. The team is still fifth on the table, but they are bleeding points away right now. They have lost their last four Ligue 1 matches. And yet here I am, betting on them to score some dang goals. Lille will not be given a better chance this season for an easy "bounceback match". Metz are the worst club with the worst defense in the league, having conceded 46 goals. Lille played them three months ago and scored six goals in that match. I know they've been out of form, but I'm betting on them to find their scoring boots against Metz.
Lille have been just horrendous in recent weeks. They have one win and six losses in their last seven matches. They are getting bullied by teams like Lyon, Rennes, Strasbourg and more. Something is just off with this club, and manager Bruno Genesio is dealing with backlash from players and fans a like. This team needs a win, desperately, so the timing is perfect to play Metz. These two met in October of last year and Lille ran over them winning 6-1. Metz has the worst defense in the league, and this is the rare chance for Lille to find their footing again. They have to go for it.
I know that PSG are the big dogs of Ligue 1, and they're the understandable favorites in this matchup. I wouldn't even be shocked if PSG win this match and pickup three points. I don't think, however, if they win it'll be by multiple goals. PSG are on tired legs after two UCL matches in eight days, and six of their last seven matches have been decided by a single goal. Gary O'Neil has really turned Strasbourg around and has Joaquin Panichelli and Martial Godo looking terrifying on attack. I think Strasbourg get the draw here, but a full goal is too much.
These two teams gave us one of the best matches of the Ligue 1 season back in October. These teams met in Paris and proceeded to give us a thrilling 3-3 draw. While I'm not sure if we'll quite get six goals again, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw four or even five goals. PSG are meeting Strasbourg at a bad time. Strasbourg new manager Gary O' Neil has them in fantastic form since he came in. They took down Lille last matchday 4-1, and will be looking at a PSG team who is tired after a grueling 1-1 draw against Newcastle in UCL. I expect Strasbourg to give them hell, and for goals to be found once more.