Jon's Picks (2 Live)
This is a game that everyone and their mother is screaming is going to be a low scoring draw. The idea that both teams are going to be so petrified of making a mistake and conceding early is fueling the under 2.5 goal market with the under being heavily juiced. I completely understand that argument and feel as though it's valid, but it's not how I view this match. Both teams have been horrendous defensively over the knockout rounds. While there will be a fear to press, I believe that both teams will be able to unlock each others defensive, and find goals. I love BTTS, but I like the over 2.5!
I keep seeing the argument that Spain have only conceded once this World Cup so we should expect this to be low-scoring cagey and I just don't agree with that. To be frank, Spain have not been tested. They haven't had to play against a truly incredible attack, and now they will be facing the best front three in world football. France will score this match and that will force Spain to press. I expect France to get at least two goals in this match, and Spain possess the talent to score themselves. I expect this to close around -130.
I really don't like accusing any leagues or refs or anything of favoritism, but the longer this World Cup goes the more we are seeing some... questionable calls always in the favor of Messi and his crew. We've seen missed calls, forced calls, and just calls with no reasoning. England have yet to play a convincing 90 minutes for me, and Messi and his crew seem to be unstoppable at the moment on the offense. I expect this game to have goals, but I expect us to see a repeat of the France v Argentina final.
France have been the favorites for the entirety of this World Cup and I don't see that changing as we get to the semi-finals. Spain have been fantastic, especially defensively, but they still have yet to find true consistency. They also haven't played an attack near as strong as France yet in this competition. Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise are the best front three on the planet, and they will not slow down against Spain. I expect them to break through, and while it won't be easy, I expect them to advance in regulation.
I know that a lot of people want to bet the under in this match because we all had to watch 90 minutes of missed chances when Colombia took on Portugal. But don't let that fool you. Colombia is a scary attacking side who creates plenty of chances and who against a Ghana side who will try to play a low block, should be able to break through. I like BTTS in this match a lot since I think Ghana fall behind early, but even if they don't contribute Luis Diaz on a good day will lead Colombia to three goals
Come on y'all - this is France we're talking about. Sweden's defense has been swiss cheese so far this competition and I can't see a world where they can stop the front line of Mbappe, Dembele and Olise from scoring goals. Sweden will have to press to stay in this game and rely on Gyokeres and Isak to find the back of the net, and most likely multiple times. I do love BTTS for this match, but I expect France to overwhelm them and run up the score!
Germany enter this matchup as the massive favorites against a Paraguay team that was battered by USA in the group stage. Paraguay was a team many boasted as a defensive juggernaut but we haven't come anywhere close to seeing that this competition. While Germany did lose 2-1 to Ecuador, that was widely seen as a match that didn't matter and they did appear to take their foot off the gas in that match. Germany quality and depth should be too much for Paraguay, as they win this by multiple goals.
Senegal and Iraq are both sitting at zero points coming into the third and final matchday. Senegal put up good fights against both France and Norway, while Iraq looked non-existent in how they played. Both teams are desperate for a win but I only trust one team, and that's the team with an in-form Sadio Mane and Sarr. Senegal are the better side with the better attack, and they need to run up the score to help their goal differential. I expect at least 3 goals from Senegal.
Norway have made the decision to rest 10 of their 11 starters in their match against France to prioritize rotation over rhythm. France on the other hand is playing all their killers. We have to believe that Kylian Mbappe who is hunting both the Golden Boot and Golden Ball had a say in this one. France are playing for a big win while Norway is resting. I'm taking this spread and not second guessing anything.
Netherlands are in the same position we see Japan in going into the last match of the group stage. They need to not only win, but run up the goal differential. Netherlands have been ruthless on the attack so far in this competition, picking up seven goals in their first two matches. They are now playing the worst defensive side in their group, Tunisia, who have been a punching bag for teams already. I expect Netherlands to cover this over by themselves, with whoever ends up starting in the 9 spot grabbing a couple goals along the way.
Germany had already won this group, so a lot of people, myself included assumed they would rotate up their squad. That was not the case. Manager Julian has decided to play all Germany's best players in an attempt to "continue to build up the rhythm of his squad" , which means poor Ecuador could be on the end of another Germany beatdown. We're seeing Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane all starting up top. This game could get ugly!
I'm shocked that this line is even remotely playable. Sweden's defense has been atrocious so far this competition as we saw them concede five to Netherlands, but still managing to score in both their games. Then we have Japan who is heavily motivated to score to stay ahead and win the group in goal differential. I wouldn't be shocked if this game sees over five goals, or if Japan cover the 2.5 by themselves. Expect this over to clear in this one.
England gave us a shockingly good attack in their opening match against Croatia. This is a team that many people expected to play very slow and defensive under manager Thomas Tuchel, but that Croatia match showed us this is a team that will press and isn't afraid to attack. I expect the likes of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham to have a field day with a Ghana backline that is in for a rough 90 minutes trying to stop this English attack.
Croatia looked way better in their World Cup opener than I expected. They played the titan that is England and while they conceded four goals, this Croatia side was able to play them hard for 90 minutes and break their defense multiple times. They now need to bounce back, but if they play a fraction as well as they did against England as Panama, they should be able to run this score up against a fragile Panama backline. Look at Petar Musa to score if he starts again as the Dallas striker continues his good run of form.
Belgium attack have struggled to live up to their potential so far in this World Cup. Now, to be fair, it's only been one game haha, so they have plenty of time to turn things around. Lukaku gets the start for Belgium so express an extremely volatile and aggressive style of play from them. Meanwhile, Iran looked better than people expected against New Zealand specifically on the attack. I'm expecting not only over 2.5 goals to hit, but over 3.5 as well!