Alex's Picks (2 Live)
We’re getting a hefty discount on this combination line for Derrick White who has been quiet so far through the opening round of the playoffs. White is still playing heavy minutes in this series and I expect him to breakout of the mini slump he’s been in. White is shooting just 31% from the field through this series. The versatile combo guard averaged over 26 PRA in the regular season.
Wendell Carter is playing big minutes in this series and despite dealing with foul trouble and a blowout in Game 2, the big man is averaging 33 MPG, 3 more than his season average. I expect that to once again be the case tonight in a game that projects to be competitive. Carter has been very active so far in this series.
This line is too low for Joel Embiid who is one of the highest usage players in the NBA. Even if Embiid only plays 30-32 minutes he is more than capable of eclipsing this line. I expect a competitive game environment as well.
The Spurs will look to De’Aaron Fox to carry their offensive tonight as they get ready for a pivotal Game 3 against the Blazers in Portland. While Fox’s numbers are fairly pedestrian this season, he really thrived in games without Wemby averaging a robust 24.6 PPG, compared to just 16 PPG when the pair shared the court. I consider Fox one of the best crunch time scorers in the league and expect him to be very aggressive looking for his shot tonight.
This is a heavily discounted combo line for James Harden who averaged a combined 12.8 Reb+Ast in the regular season. Harden is still a nightly threat to compile double digit assists. My model projects Harden at 13.1 Reb+Ast which is a sizable edge here. I’d play this for a full unit at 11.5 as well.
Cade Cunningham certainly did his part in Game 1’s defeat against the Magic, scoring 39 points, while chipping 5 boards and 4 assists. As a result we’re seeing an enormous combination line as Cade’s combo line is usually set between 37.5 to 39.5. While Cade is capable of scoring 35-40 on any given night, the Pistons are at their best when he’s getting his teammates involved. Tobias Harris was the only other Piston to score in double figures in Game 1, despite six Pistons averaging at least 10 PPG in the regular season.
Despite losing Game 1 to the Spurs, Deni Avdija stuffed the stat sheet and compiled 45 combined PRA while logging just under 40 minutes. Avdija has eclipsed this combo line in eight consecutive games dating back to the regular season. Avdija is playing big minutes and looks fully healthy right now. I expect his usage rate to continue to spike in Game 2. I would play this combo line at 37.5 as well.
This is a hefty scoring line for Jalen Duren in what would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup. Duren has improved as a scorer, however he averages 18.9 PPG while sharing the court with Cade Cunningham, compared to 22 PPG without him this season. He’s facing an Orlando squad that has been very good against opposing Centers.
James Harden has seen his numbers decline since joining the Cavaliers ahead of the trade deadline. Harden is sharing the court with another high volume player that needs the ball in his hands in order to be most effective. In a game that projects to be low scoring and paced downs this looks like a natural spot to fade Harden, coupled with him having struggled throughout the playoffs during his career.
This is a nice discount on Franz Wagner’s scoring line. Wagner missed the bulk of the season but returned late in the season and both his usage and playing time steadily increased culminating in two performances where he eclipsed this line to close out the regular season. I expect Franz to get a nice bump in playing time and I like his chances of scoring 20+ points.
This is a big line for Dillon Brooks who has averaged less than 15 PPG since returning to Phoenix’s lineup after missing over a month of action. Brooks only eclipsed this line once in his previous six appearances. This game features two teams that like to play slow coupled with a low projected total of just 218.5 points. The Suns don’t rely on Brooks nearly as much as they did early in the season prior to the emergence of Jalen Green. I would play this line down to 18.5 for a full unit and ultimately expect this to close between 17.5 and 18.5.
This looks like a good spot to fade rookie Kon Knueppel who is having a fantastic season, however his production has fallen off recently. Knueppel is averaging 16.7 PPG since March 1st and while he’s still playing well his efficiency has taken a hit as well. He gets a very tough matchup against a Detroit Pistons squad that is very good defensively. I also expect this game to be paced down.
This is a big combo line for RJ Barrett who is averaging a combined 26.3 PRA on the season. While this is definitely a good matchup on paper against a Heat team that hasn’t been particularly good defensively, it is a must win game for both teams and should be a playoff atmosphere. The Raptors are also as healthy as they have been all season long. Ultimately this number is a couple ticks too high for a guy that doesn’t create a lot of offense.