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    Alex Selesnick

    PropStarz

    An experienced poker player, Alex Selesnick (aka PropStarz) specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. He is arguably the nation's No. 1 props expert. Since joining CBS Sports in 2021, PropStarz has delivered consistent winners on SportsLine.com and "The Early Edge," the popular daily betting show. He is 461-350 (plus 62.6 units) in the NFL entering the 2024 season, and 212-146 (plus 53.06 units) in MLB entering the 2024 baseball season. PropStarz also is coming off a monster NBA season that saw him go 338-246 on prop plays (plus 42.72 units). PropStarz appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ and "The Early Edge" and publishes frequent articles with sophisticated analysis on SportsLine.com. For Alex Selesnick media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    +2938
    RECORD: 189-127-0
    # 1 MLB EXPERT
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks

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    Alex's Past Picks

    Jul 14 2024, 8:10 pm UTC
    League
    Toronto
    8
    @ Arizona
    7
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Arizona has been exceptional versus lefties all season and possess the 5th highest OPS that they pair with a stingy 20.8% K Rate. This bodes poorly for Yusei Kikuchi who has failed to go 6+ in seven of his last nine starts. Kikuchi also sports a bloated 5.86 ERA over this nine game sample and will have his hands full against one of the MLB's top offenses.

    Pick Made: Jul 14, 9:57 am UTC on Caesars
    Jul 13 2024, 12:10 am UTC
    League
    Texas
    3
    @ Houston
    6
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Hunter Brown has gone at least 6 IP in nine consecutive appearances and eight of those games have qualified as quality starts. Outside of his last start, Brown has been lights out, however I would make a strong argument he's pitching above expectations and due for some regression. I also like fading him in this matchup against a Rangers lineup that ranks top 5 in OPS since July 1st, in addition to possessing excellent career numbers against Brown.

    Pick Made: Jul 12, 10:49 am UTC on DraftKings
    Jul 12 2024, 11:10 pm UTC
    League
    Colorado
    6
    @ N.Y. Mets
    7
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I must give credit to Sean Manaea who has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on/fade on a regular basis. However the 32 year old southpaw has put together a really solid season. With that being said, I believe he's being a bit overvalued here, even in a good matchup. Manaea has been held under 7 Ks in 14/17 starts. He's also facing a Rockies lineup who certainly aren't good, although the "strength" of their team is facing southpaws. Additionally my model has a sizable edge on Manaea's under. I also like fading his outs line at 17.5.

    Pick Made: Jul 12, 9:11 am UTC on FanDuel
    Jul 11 2024, 11:10 pm UTC
    League
    Oakland
    0
    @ Boston
    7
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Tanner Houck is having a tremendous season at the front of Boston's rotation and has been rewarded by making his first All-Star team. Houck has eclipsed this line in 13/18 starts on the season and gets a plus matchup against an Oakland As lineup that ranks 25th in OPS against opposing right handed pitchers. While Houck has struggled his previous two starts, they came against elite offenses in New York and San Diego which will not be the case today. I like Houcks chances of getting back on track today.

    Pick Made: Jul 11, 1:21 pm UTC on DraftKings
    Jul 11 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    Washington
    0
    @ N.Y. Mets
    7
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    MacKenzie Gore is in the midst of a career season, however I do believe he is performing above his head and is a regression candidate. Gore will also have the unenviable task of facing a Mets lineup that pairs a top 5 OPS with a bottom 10 K Rate against opposing southpaws. From a matchup perspective it doesn't get much tougher and the Mets also are very familiar with Gore and have good career numbers against the 3rd year pro.

    Pick Made: Jul 11, 4:34 am UTC on DraftKings
    Jul 11 2024, 1:40 am UTC
    League
    Atlanta
    5
    @ Arizona
    7
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    We love Charlie Morton at PropStarz HQ but this is simply a big number for the ageless wonder. Morton has failed to go 6+ IP in 9/16 start this season. Morton will be facing a Diamondbacks offense that has been excellent since June 1st and ranks in the top five in most offensive categories.

    Pick Made: Jul 10, 1:47 pm UTC on Sugar House
    Jul 10 2024, 1:40 am UTC
    League
    Atlanta
    6
    @ Arizona
    2
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Zac Gallen is a different pitcher at home where he possesses a sterling 1.72 ERA and this has been a theme throughout Gallen's career. He has gone at least 6 IP in every home start besides the home opener where he was on a pitch count. Gallen has gone at least 6+ IP in a remarkable 21 of his last 23 home starts dating back to last season (including postseason appearances). He will face a Braves offense that is the definition of average. Like always, I would recommend shopping around as you're likely to find better odds elsewhere, but I am comfortable even playing it up to -180.

    Pick Made: Jul 09, 5:21 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 09 2024, 10:40 pm UTC
    League
    Cleveland
    9
    @ Detroit
    8
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Ben Lively is having a solid season and has stepped up after the Guardians lost Shane Bieber to a season ending injury after just his second start. Lively's strikeout numbers have been consistent and has eclipsed this number in eight of his last nine appearances, including four consecutive starts. Lively has recorded at least four Ks in 12/14 starts this season and gets a friendly matchup against a Tigers lineup that possesses the 8th highest K Rate against opposing right handed pitching.

    Pick Made: Jul 09, 12:21 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 09 2024, 1:38 am UTC
    League
    Texas
    9
    @ L.A. Angels
    4
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Jon Gray has really struggled on the mound since June 1st and owns an ERA over 8.00 over his last six starts. He has failed to throw five strikeouts in eight consecutive games. While Gray's decrease in strikeout production can be partially contributed to some tough matchups, Gray is also been extremely unlucky and is a major positive regression candidate. Gray sports a healthy 11.8% SwStr% which is even higher than his career average of 11.4%. Despite healthy metrics, he is sporting a 20.6% K Rate, the second lowest mark of his 10 year career.

    Pick Made: Jul 08, 2:26 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 06 2024, 8:05 pm UTC
    League
    Tampa Bay
    3
    @ Texas
    4
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    This is a big number for Andrew Heaney who has failed to eclipse 6+ IP in 11 of 17 starts this season. On the surface this might appear to be a plus matchup for Heaney, however the Rays have been above average against opposing southpaws this season.

    Pick Made: Jul 06, 1:46 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 06 2024, 6:10 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    3
    @ Minnesota
    9
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Hunter Brown has pitched very well for the Astros, particularly recently, however Brown possesses some drastic home versus road splits. He'll also be facing a very underrated Twins lineup that has performed very well recently. I believe Brown is pitching above his head and I think this is a solid spot to fade the young pitcher, on the road, versus an underrated lineup.

    Pick Made: Jul 06, 1:43 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 06 2024, 12:10 am UTC
    League
    Kansas City
    2
    @ Colorado
    4
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    This is a tough spot for Cole Ragans on the road and pitching at Coors Field for the first time. While the Rockies certainly aren't a good team they still hit lefties well and can certainly swing the bats well at home. Considering the price point, I believe this is worth a speculative play.

    Pick Made: Jul 05, 7:23 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 05 2024, 6:20 pm UTC
    League
    L.A. Angels
    1
    @ Chi. Cubs
    5
    +2555
    186-126 in Last 312 MLB Picks
    Analysis:

    This feels like a very big total considering Justin Steele is on the mound for the Cubs. He will be opposed by Griffin Canning who hasn't been great, however the Cubs offense ranks in the bottom 10 in nearly every offensive category.

    Pick Made: Jul 05, 4:30 am UTC on FanDuel
    Jul 04 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    Detroit
    3
    @ Minnesota
    12
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    This is a chunkly line for Bailey Ober who has been held under this line in 9/16 starts this season. Furthermore I would argue that Ober is running above expectations as far as his strikeouts are concerned. If we look under the hood, Ober's 12.9% SwStr% is lower than his career average despite Ober owning the highest K Rate of his career. The Tigers are also quite familiar with Ober.

    Pick Made: Jul 04, 5:18 am UTC on Caesars
    Jul 04 2024, 5:07 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    5
    @ Toronto
    3
    +2938
    189-127 in Last 316 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Chris Bassitt is having a solid season but get a tough matchup against a a very stingy Houston lineup that sports the lowest K Rate in the AL. Bassitt has failed to record 6+ Ks in 9/17 outings this season. Houston is very familiar with Bassitt and their lineup collectively possesses a sub 16% K Rate over 107 ABs.

    Pick Made: Jul 04, 5:16 am UTC on Caesars