Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Luka Doncic was suspended for Monday’s game against the Wizards after receiving his 16th technical foul of the season. Before the suspension, he averaged 39.7 points over his previous 12 games. He averaged a whopping 27.3 shot attempts and 9.6 free throw attempts during that span. The Cavaliers have struggled on the defensive end since acquiring James Harden, including ranking 20th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games. This is a big number, but I still like the over.
Amen Thompson has averaged 9.8 rebounds over his last nine games. During that span, he grabbed at least eight rebounds seven times. In one of the games that he didn’t, he just missed with seven boards. A key to his gaudy rebounding stats is that he played 39 minutes a night during that span. The last time he faced the Knicks, he grabbed 10 rebounds over 40 minutes. With the expectation that he plays a lot again Tuesday, the over is the way to go here.
Tre Jones continues to start for the Bulls down the stretch. Over the last 14 games, he has averaged 16.8 points and 5.1 assists. With regards to this prop, he combined for at least 19 points and assists in 11 of those games. That includes reaching that threshold in difficult matchups against the Thunder, Rockets, Clippers and Suns. When these teams played each other in November, Jones finished with 20 points and seven assists. This line has been set too low, so give me the over.
The Spurs have a great matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. Along the way, they have given up the third-most assists per game. Stephon Castle already comes into this matchup playing well, averaging 18.7 points and 8.4 assists over his last nine games. Another stat I like is that he is shooting 50.2% from the field at home, versus 44.6% on the road. It’s going to be difficult for the Bulls to slow him down.
After missing 10 straight games with a finger injury, Tyrese Maxey returned Saturday against the Hornets. He wasn’t eased back into action, logging 43 minutes. He scored 26 points, which is impressive because the Hornets have the sixth-best defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Over their last 10 games, the Heat rank 23rd in defensive rating. The Heat have also played at the fastest pace in the league for the season. In two previous games against them, Maxey scored 27 and 28 points. This is an important game for both teams for playoff seeding, so I think Maxey plays a ton and hits this over.
Nikola Jokic averaged 13.3 assists over his last 11 games. He dished out at least 11 assists in nine of those 11 games. The Nuggets are finally healthy, so with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson back in the fold, Jokic has a lot of excellent finishers around him. The Warriors rank 19th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games, so I like Jokic’s chances of hitting this over.
The Rockets recently benched Tari Eason, moving Reed Sheppard into the starting lineup. Over the last five games since that move was made, Sheppard combined for at least eight rebounds and assists each time. During the stretch, he averaged 4.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists. The last time he faced the Pelicans, he had five rebounds and three assists off the bench. Look for him to be productive in both departments again.
In a difficult matchup versus the Thunder on Friday, Josh Giddey emerged with seven rebounds and 11 assists. He has been excelling in both departments, averaging 9.3 rebounds and 11.8 assists over his last 12 games. That included a battle with the Grizzlies in which he recorded 15 rebounds and 13 assists. The Grizzlies give up the fifth-most rebounds per game and the ninth-most assists per game in the league, so look for Giddey to also shine in their rematch.
Daniss Jenkins has started five straight games with Cade Cunningham (chest) out. After scorning nine points on 3-for-16 shooting the first game, he has scored at least 19 points in four straight. During that five-game stretch, he averaged 38 minutes,14.2 shot attempts and 4.4 free throw attempts per game. The Timberwolves will be without three of their best perimeter defenders in Anthony Edwards (knee), Jaden McDaniels (knee) and Ayo Dosunmu (calf), which puts Jenkins in a favorable position to hit this over.
Jared McCain only scored six points over 13 minutes against the Celtics on Wednesday. It was a close game, so the Thunder gave more minutes to their starters. This has the potential to be a blowout against the Bulls, who allowed 157 points in a 20-point loss to the 76ers on Wednesday. The Thunder recently blew out two bad teams in the Wizards and Nets. McCain played 28 minutes in each game, scoring 26 and 18 points. I think he plays around 20 minutes against the Bulls, leaving him with a great opportunity to hit this over.
Darius Garland has scored at least 19 points in seven of his last nine games. During that span, he averaged 23.1 points in 29 minutes per game. The last time he faced the Pacers, he was still on a minute restriction in his return from injury. He only played 24 minutes, but still scored 12 points. The Pacers might be able to keep this game somewhat close with Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard expected to play. That means Garland could log around 30 minutes against a team that has the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. Take this over.
The Magic continue to play without Franz Wagner (ankle) and Anthony Black (abdomen). Tristan da Silva has started each of the last 10 games without them, averaging 14.0 points and 31 minutes a night. Five of those games came at home and he scored at least 12 points in each of them. In three of those home games, he topped 20 points. The Kings have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, so with plenty of minutes coming his way, I like da Silva to continue his hot scoring stretch.
Peyton Watson scored 14 points over 20 minutes against the Trail Blazers on Friday in his return from injury. The Nuggets sat him Tuesday against the Suns because they didn’t want him to play in both halves of their back-to-back set. I think Aaron Gordon will sit for rest Wednesday. He also has not played consecutive days since returning from an injury of his own. Watson could play around 25 minutes against a Mavericks team that has the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Watson averages 14.9 points per game for the season, so I’ll bite on this discount and take the over.