Look for the Hurricanes to lean into the one component in this matchup where they have the advantage, and that's the offensive line. In the trenches Miami has a huge size difference, which means they'll try to shrink the game there with Mark Fletcher and their run game. Expect the Canes to chew up a lot of clock, with the ability to keep this game under that 8.5 number.
When you look at rematch games, it always comes down to what little adjustments teams make over the previous matchup. When facing Indiana, it really is about discipline and execution, which is tough to game plan for and adjust to. The Hoosiers simply do not make mistakes and this spread is close enough to definitely reflect that notion.
One thing about Illinois State under coach Brock Spack is that they are going to be assignment sound and disciplined at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. Montana State is an explosive bunch, one that does a great job of generating big plays in the run game. It's a styles make fights type of situation, one that I believe will yield a very close game.
I like what I've seen from this Georgia Bulldogs team during the back half of the season. Their run game has been stellar, and they are playing excellent on defense. This team has the 'big game' experience under Kirby Smart which will prove to be valuable against Ole Miss, who will be trying to win a huge game without former coach Lane Kiffin.
Last time these two teams met earlier in the season, it was a 43-35 shootout thriller. This time around, without Lane Kiffin at the helm for Ole Miss, combined with a Georgia defense that has gotten significantly better down the stretch, it won't be that many points combined. Look for both coaches to play it close to the vest because of the magnitude of the game, being it is a playoff contest.
Both teams are strong at the point of attack. Where Indiana my find themselves getting into a bit of a pickle is along the defensive line because of the injuries. While Alabama hasn't been good running the football this year, this particular matchup could give them exactly what they need to do just that. Seven and a half points in a win-or-go home game just feels like a bit too much.
With the combination of the weather concerns at the Rose Bowl, in conjunction with how well both teams play at the line of scrimmage, you can expect this game to move at a snail's pace. Indiana does a great job of doing the little things well, playing great within the margins. They do not beat themselves and have no qualms about punting the football. Look for them to play it tight, forcing Bama to make the first mistake. Also look for Bama to play it very conservatively as well, hoping to win in the end with experience.
Texas Tech has an elite defense no doubt. So does Oregon. Where the difference between the two teams are in the passing game. The Ducks have a potential Top 5 pick in QB Dante Moore, who is a terrific dual-threat QB and is armed with elite weapons across the receiving corps. If it came down to which offense could you trust vs an elite defense, you have to side with Oregon.
It's been a storied run for the Redbirds during this playoff season. Both teams are built similarly in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They also love to establish the ground game as well. Villanova has the better secondary and are more apt to connect on some much needed passes if the run game should come to a halt. And that'll be the difference here vs Illinois State.
What a fantastic matchup here in the FCS Semi-finals between two heated rivals. This game is always one of the better ones on the calendar and we get it for the right to go to Nashville for the FCS Championship. This line jumped a full point during the week, but I can't jive with that number in a game of this magnitude with two teams of the same caliber. Expect this to come down to a field goal or less.
Tulane got absolutely obliterated in their first meeting earlier in the season. Since then, both teams' coaches have been hired by other programs, but Jon Summerall has decided to stay and coach the team through the playoffs. And what we saw from Tulane defensively in the AAC title game could be a sign of things to come here against the Rebels. Look for the Green Wave to fare much better this time around with everything on the line, embracing the role of the G5 underdog.
Where the Aggies have an advantage over the Canes is at the QB position. A healthy Marcel Reed gives Texas A&M a plus-one in the run game and changes the math defensively for Miami. All things being equal across the board, look for the Aggie signal caller to be the reason why they win the game and cover.
I think this game is one that features two teams that are mirror images of each other. Both are solid along the offensive line and both can run the ball WHEN they want to. Defensively they are fundamentally sound and do a great job of minimize the big play. 5.5 points is a bit too much for me, when the matchup says it should be close to a pick'em.
The Cavaliers have played excellent offense this year, but their defensive efforts are the reason why they are in this position to punch their ticket to the postseason. Look for them to be able to get both key and timely stops against the Blue Devils offense en route to running into the postseason.
With the spread being only four points, I actually think that's giving a nod and some respect to Indiana. The problem is that I don't think the Hoosiers can find enough points to successfully cover this spread. Ohio State's passing offense is going to be the reason why they are able to get to cover town vs Indiana.
