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    Josh Nagel

    Senior Analyst

    Josh Nagel is a Reno-based analyst and radio host who has worked in the sports handicapping industry for more than 20 years. SportsLine's assistant managing editor has covered the wagering industry on a variety of platforms, and has won numerous sports handicapping contests. He prides himself on consistency and insightful analysis. He has hit 59 percent of his NBA pointspread picks since the start of the 2017 season, netting his followers 30.75 units. For Josh Nagel media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @JoshNagel1

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    Josh's Past Picks

    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    Analysis:

    Although the price is a bit chalky, it has actually dropped from a high of -170 or steeper at some outlets. At this price, it's extremely playable as a straight bet or in a single-game parlay. Although TD production is subject to variance, this is still a meager milestone for the game's best QB to clip on a stage where we've seen him excel. Mahomes has hit this mark in two of his previous three Super Bowl appearances.

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 10:12 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    Analysis:

    The dual-threat bellcow is a generational talent. and he's been well worth the multiple draft picks the 49ers traded to get him. He's found the end zone twice in each of the first two postseason games, and there's solid value for him to do it again as he performs on the sport's biggest stage for the first time.

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 10:04 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +99
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
    +95
    2-1 in Last 3 KC O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    The 49ers' defense has been leaky in the playoffs, while the Chiefs' stagnant offense came alive just in time for the postseason. With the game on turf and numerous game-breakers on each side, this has the feel of a game script similar to when these clubs met in Super Bowl 54. It might be a bit sloe early, but look for second-half fireworks that send this Over the total.

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 10:07 pm UTC
    Jan 28 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    Detroit
    31
    @ San Francisco
    34
    Analysis:

    Reynolds has clipped this number 10 times this season, and his 15.2 yards per catch average illustrates he is a big-play threat. With top target Amon-Ra St. Brown destined to garner extra attention from the 49ers secondary, Reynolds should have plenty of opportunities to surpass this number.

    Pick Made: Jan 28, 7:24 pm UTC
    Jan 28 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    Detroit
    31
    @ San Francisco
    34
    +1209.5
    67-51-5 in Last 123 NFL Picks
    +85
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL ATS Picks
    +390
    9-5 in Last 14 SF ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    The 49ers looked a bit wobbly last week and were fortunate to escape against an upstart Green Bay club that self-destructed down the stretch. The Lions have come too far just to fold in the NFC title game, and, it's worth noting that QB Jared Goff already has won a road conference title game when he was with the Rams. While there's little doubt San Francisco has the better team, it would be a surprise if the Lions go down without a fight.

    Pick Made: Jan 27, 2:44 am UTC
    Jan 28 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    Detroit
    31
    @ San Francisco
    34
    +99
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Although both clubs feature an array of elite playmakers, there's value on the Under against this high total. San Francisco ranks in the top 5 of nearly every measurable defensive category, while Detroit's No. 2-ranked rushing defense should slow down the 49ers a little. Look for this one to sneak Under the total.

    Pick Made: Jan 28, 5:15 pm UTC
    Jan 28 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
    League
    Kansas City
    17
    @ Baltimore
    10
    Analysis:

    The veteran TE finished third on the Ravens in receiving despite missing the last seven games of the regular season because of injury. He clipped this number in all nine games in which he was healthy, and Baltimore's recent history suggests capable backup Isaiah Likely becomes an afterthought when Andrews is on the field. If Andrews is anywhere close to full health, he should easily clip this total.

    Pick Made: Jan 27, 2:45 am UTC
    Jan 28 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
    League
    Kansas City
    17
    @ Baltimore
    10
    Analysis:

    Mahomes has only failed to throw for 2 or more TDs four times in 16 career playoff appearances, and one of those goose eggs came in his postseason debut. With a Super Bowl berth on the line, a minimum of 2 TD passes feels like a near certainty for the game's top passer.

    Pick Made: Jan 28, 7:27 pm UTC
    Jan 28 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
    League
    Kansas City
    17
    @ Baltimore
    10
    Analysis:

    Veteran bruiser Gus Edwards has been both a TD magnet and a reliable grinder between the tackles this season. However, the versatile Hill has shown a little more burst and was the featured back last week against the Texans. Hill provides more potential for a pop play in the running game and he should see enough touches to clip this total.

    Pick Made: Jan 28, 5:09 pm UTC
    Jan 28 2024, 8:00 pm UTC
    League
    Kansas City
    17
    @ Baltimore
    10
    +1209.5
    67-51-5 in Last 123 NFL Picks
    +85
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL ATS Picks
    +85
    2-1 in Last 3 KC ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    There are those who believe, out of principle, you should take the points on the Patrick Mahomes side whenever they are offered and it's a tough argument to dispute. The Ravens are an understandable favorite as they appear to have lapped the field against upper-tier opponents, with blowout wins over the 49ers, Lions and Dolphins. But Mahoes is 3-1 against the Ravens, with the lone defeat coming by one point. Look for this game to be decided by a short key number either way.

    Pick Made: Jan 27, 2:43 am UTC
    Jan 21 2024, 1:15 am UTC
    League
    Green Bay
    21
    @ San Francisco
    24
    Analysis:

    Jones has hit triple digits in rushing yards in four straight contests. While the dual-threat RB will still be crucial to Green Bay's game plan, his rushing effectiveness will be limited by San Francisco's third-ranked rushing defense. Take this total Under. .

    Pick Made: Jan 20, 8:52 pm UTC
    Jan 20 2024, 9:30 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    10
    @ Baltimore
    34
    +99
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
    +300
    3-0 in Last 3 HOU O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    The Ravens averaged more than 37 points per game over their past four meaningful contests (Week 18 excluded) while showing an explosive offense that appears to be peaking. Houston can't be expected to duplicate last week's 45 points, but will do enough to help send this game Over the total.

    Pick Made: Jan 20, 8:46 pm UTC
    Jan 16 2024, 1:15 am UTC
    League
    Philadelphia
    9
    @ Tampa Bay
    32
    +1209.5
    67-51-5 in Last 123 NFL Picks
    +872
    14-5 in Last 19 NFL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Tampa Bay is the popular underdog play of wild-card weekend as bettors appear to be rushing to bet the Bucs as if they are reading the box score. The bottom line is if the Eagles have checked out as some reports suggest, this game should be no different than their recent disappointments. If they haven't, this is a clear value spot on a team that once looked headed toward the top seed in the NFC and crushed the Bucs 25-11 in Week 3. If the Eagles can rediscover their competitive grit and take advantage of this favorable matchup, they have a great chance to salvage their season next week at Detroit with a berth in the NFC title game at stake.

    Pick Made: Jan 15, 5:34 pm UTC
    Jan 15 2024, 9:30 pm UTC
    League
    Pittsburgh
    17
    @ Buffalo
    31
    +99
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Although inclement weather is often an overestimated factor when analyzing totals, there are other reasons to like the Under on the total in this game, which has seen wild swings. Buffalo has become a more run-oriented team in recent weeks, and Pittsburgh will likely have to revert to its smash-mouth ways if it is to cover or have a chance to pull the upset.

    Pick Made: Jan 15, 5:00 pm UTC
    Jan 15 2024, 1:15 am UTC
    League
    L.A. Rams
    23
    @ Detroit
    24
    +1209.5
    67-51-5 in Last 123 NFL Picks
    +85
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Much has been made about the Rams' 7-1 late-season surge. But the only winning team they beat in that span (aside from the meaningless Week 18 game against the 49ers) came against the Browns in Joe Flacco's first start. This is a huge game for the Lions franchise and QB Jared Goff against his former team. The Lions also get a boost from the presence of TE Sam LaPorta, who had been a longshot to play because of a knee injury.

    Pick Made: Jan 14, 11:38 pm UTC