One team out-and-out celebrated its Sunday win. For the other, victory was bittersweet. Chicago dominated Atlanta for three-plus quarters as QB Caleb Williams showed no rust from his three-week layoff with a hamstring injury. The Bears exited the game in reasonably good health. Not so for New England with its W over the Jets. Three ailing offensive linemen called it a day early, and the short week makes their return iffy. There is no doubt about WR Romeo Doubs, who landed on injured reserve. While Pats QB Drake Maye made a run at MVP last season, Williams should be in the hunt this year if he stays off the sideline.

For a total flirting with the mid 50s, a game generally matches two weak defenses. While the Dallas D has been porous enough to almost allow this many points on its own. Green Bay's rates eighth. Its offense plays at a moderate pace, with a No. 24 ranking for average snaps per team. In fact, the Packers' offense was downright awful until last week. One performance does not establish a trend, so here's assuming the host will not take full advantage of a soft defense and keep the scoring at a reasonable pace.

Curiously, Bears QB Caleb Williams practiced all week but has not been declared the starter. as of Saturday. Perhaps Chicago is playing possum. A player sitting after a full week of practice is rare, so let's assume Williams returns from injury hiatus. His counterpart, Michael Penix Jr., is expected to soldier through with sore ribs. The Falcons are back to a matinee kickoff after three straight in prime time -- when RB Bijan Robinson excels. However, New Orleans held Robinson to an average of 49 yards per game in three encounters when current Chicago d-coordinator Dennis Allen operated in N'Awlins. Both defenses are rugged against the run, so here's trusting Williams more when teams are forced to throw.

It's a steep price to pay for the hook. What is projected as a low-to-moderate score could make the extra half-point a factor. QB Tyler Huntley, in for Lamar Jackson, might be a proven backup, but Browns coach Todd Monken knows him well, having been on the same side before. Baltimore’s 4-1 record slightly deceives. It has been blessed with an easy-peasy schedule, and three wins have been by one-score margins (including last week’s in overtime). In the underdog role, Cleveland has covered in seven of the last eight.

How about the Jets' defense -- fourth in the league for fewest yards allowed? No team this century had held three of its first five opponents to south of 200 yards until now. The pass rush could keep QB Drake Maye on his toes. New York's offense hasn't set the world afire, but QB Geno Smith has yet to toss an interception and ranks fourth in completion rate. His job got easier Friday with the Pats scratching injured CBs Carlton Davis III and Karon Prunty. A good defense plus a spot of more than a touchdown is an irresistible combo.

How can a 1-4 team with three successive losses be favored on the road over a 3-1-1 foe? It can only be attributed to one factor: the Jameis Winston Effect. The Giants’ QB gets no love — partly for good reason, given his history of erraticism. You say he hasn’t beaten anyone of significance since stepping in for injured Jaxson Dart. We say, so what? He’s 2-0-1, while granting that the tie with Washington should have been a loss. Teammates go through a wall for him. New York should find enough points versus a shaky defense, while Saints QB Tyler Shough appears bumped-and-bruised. As underdog, Winston has guided his team to four straight covers.

No QB Jalen Hurts. Possibly no RB Saquon Barkley or WR DeVonta Smith. Philly will be hard-pressed to score points, which is especially important against an opponent with a lively offense. The Panthers rank third for yards per game and are scoring just north of 30 points on average, good for fourth. QB Bryce Young sports a passer rating of 100, one of 10 throwers in triple digits. Carolina enters with a rest advantage, having been off last week while the Eagles were crossing the ocean to play.

The Rams got peerless WR Puka Nacua back last weekend. They expect to have future Famer Aaron Donald at DT back for this one. His return is welcome against a gifted offense but one that has committed seven turnovers the past two games amid concerns about QB Josh Allen's ailing knee. L.A.'s defense has performed far better than Buffalo's. The Rams' remarkable comeback to win in Philly last Sunday sets them up for a fifth consecutive cover at home.

The Falcons are back in prime time, right where they like it. Atlanta just pulled off two straight lopsided road wins at night, and their faithful following will be revved up for the Ravens’ visit Sunday evening. A sprained ankle might keep QB Lamar Jackson on the sideline. He could be compromised if he plays. The Falcons’ return of Michael Penix Jr at QB for the hapless Cooper Rush after two games has worked wonders. Nobody relishes prime time like the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson. The best RB in the league at any hour might be the best all-time under the lights. With three 200-plus yards from scrimmage under his belt, he ran for a mere 145 and two TDs on Monday night.

Snaring San Fran with a field goal on the line is a rarity that is too good to pass up. The 49ers seem to shrug off injuries, and being gifted with exclusively home dates in Weeks 2 through 4 might have helped with overall rehab. Seattle swept three games in the series last year, confining the Niners to 22 points. With QB Brock Purdy in MVP form and the O-line sealing him off from danger, the Niners could exceed that amount. in one afternoon. The ‘Hawks have their own injury concerns, while their esteemed defense has been un-Seattle-like the last two games.

Denver has squeezed out two-dozen points in two roadies, and head coach Sean Payton has seized play-calling duties from his coordinator. L.A. has managed a measly four touchdowns in four games, and an O-line in tatters from injuries figures to start four rookies. The unit ranks 31st in offensive efficiency, while QB Justin Herbert owns the second-lowest passer rating -- surely related to his 12 sacks, third most in the league. It's an unusual scenario for these proud franchises, so it's only fitting that rain could fall on the game in usually sunny SoCal.

If a team can't score, it can't win, SU or ATS. Miami began the season with the weakest offense on paper. With its lone threat, RB De’Von Achane, finished for the season, the cupboard is bare. Cincy is yielding two touchdowns per outing against more effective attacks. The ‘Fins have managed four TDs all season. and QB Malik Willis must cope with a pass rush that has produced 14 sacks. The Bengals were in danger of missing their elite one-two WR punch, but Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins appear ticketed to suit up.

Early in the season, some spreads are set based more on a team’s reputation than on reality. The Browns might be eking out wins, but they have strung toegther three straight as QB Deshaun Watson, while not at the level of his heyday in Houston, has accounted himself well. It’s generally a no-no to determine a pick partly on the previous game, yet the Jets’ offense slogged through one of the sorriest duds in NFL annals last Sunday. Chances for an immediate turn-around seem unlikely with RB Breece Hall and WR Adonai Mitchell out. QB Geno Smith has avoided interceptions yer has suffered a dozen sacks.

The Bears should change their nickname to Ball Hogs. They have maintained possession for 36 minutes per game — that’s 60 percent for the math-challenged — which is four minutes more than the next-best keep-away team. The muscular running attack has racked up an astonishing 196.3 yards per game. The stout defense has also helped shore things up with the absence of QB Caleb Williams. Green Bay is the polar opposite, with 26 minutes per (second fewest) and 58 yards per (fewest). The gap is too vast to write off. Advantage, big-time, to the Bears.

It's mighty early in the season for the Saints' defense to be ravaged by injuries. Not good timing when facing peerless RB Bijan Robinson, who lights up when playing under the lights. Robinson boasts three prime-time games in which he has exceeded 200 yards from scrimmage. New Orleans is permitting a generous 4.7 yards per carry. Scratched are edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings, plus LB Kaden Elliss. A fourth starter, LB Pete Werner, might join them in absentia. Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. was sharp in his season opener last Thursday. His team is blessed with additional days to get ready for this game.