NC State is 30 minutes down the road from Duke, and there should be a lot of red in the stands for this one. Neither defense has been impressive to start the year, but State has more explosive playmakers on offense, which could be enough to tilt this one in their favor.

We suspect Duke is about to be devalued by the oddsmakers with one more loss, but while the Blue Devils continue to get the benefit of the doubt in the price, we'll gladly jump in the other way. Losses to Illinois (big) and Darian Mensah's old Tulane suggest Duke is undershooting. A leakier-than-advertised Manny Diaz defense has been another problem. Meanwhile, NC State is 3-0, showing much mettle in fightback wins over Virginia & Wake Forest, has a true livewire QB in CJ Bailey, and a real running game headed by Hollywood Smothers. The short ride on Tobacco Road from Raleigh also means plenty of NCS support at Wallace Wade. Is the better team getting points? Play NC State

NC State QB CJ Bailey is looking like a potential 2027 1st round pick at the position. He's played significantly better this season as opposed to last year. In this game last year, he played awful. Don't expect that to be the case, especially since the offense looks to be firing on all cylinders.

There is no doubt in my mind that this game is a must win for a 1-2 Duke team that has back-to-back road games coming up (Syracuse, Cal) followed by Georgia Tech and Clemson at home. The Blue Devils didn't play exceptionally well against Illinois or Tulane, but I predicted both teams to make the CFP at the start of the season. NC State is nothing more than average as I see it and Duke should win this game by at least a touchdown. Duke 33, NC State 24.

We aren't totally out on Duke after they lost to two good teams--- Illinois and Tulane. NC State is off to a 3-0 start, but their wins haven't done enough to change our opinion of them. Duke has struggled with turnovers to start the season, but last year at home they turned the ball over just over once per game while forcing three per game. NC State averaged over 2 turnovers on the road last season. We expect some regression to the mean and like Duke in this spot.