This one suddenly has a different feel with the Wahoos, on their first win streak of the Tony Elliott era following the rousing upset over the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. Monmouth transfer QB Tony Muskett simply pretending to be throwing against Stony Brook or Albany or some of the others on the Hawks' schedule last fall, tossing 6 TDP the past three games as UVa works on a 4-game cover streak as well. Meanwhile Mario Cristobal felling a bit less heat after that thrill-packed win over Clemson in OT, all the more unlikely with QB Tyler Van Dyke a scratch. Home chalk a difficult role since for Miami Cristobal arrived (Canes 1-6 last seven as Hard Rock favorite).

Both teams enter having given up 300+ yards passing last week but also each winning the game. These two have also played at North Carolina over the last two weeks and both scored exactly 31 points. Virginia won, Miami didn't. Long story short, look for both teams to exploit below average pass defenses and turn up the scoreboard while also slowing down the clock. This especially with a stellar Miami run defense, Virginia will have to do it in the air. I don't trust either of these defenses to make good decisions, which is why I absolutely trust broken coverages leading us to 48 points or more.

In six home games against ACC teams, Miami under Mario Cristobal is 1-5 outright with his only win in double overtime against Clemson last week. Virginia may be awful, but they still registered the season's biggest upset with a 31-27 victory at North Carolina in Week 8. Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last six games and also 5-1 ATS in their last six against Miami. This line feels too inflated to me. Miami 27, Virginia 17.